NIFTY 2019 - Consolidation Mode !

HAPPY NEW YEAR -2019

Nifty closes the December 2018 series @ 10780 failing to rise above 11K levels and has marginally risen from the close of 10480 in 2017.

The year 2019 January series begins with the indices in a consolidation phase with 10675 becoming a pivotal point.  The market seems to have priced in most events.  The result season starting mid January is what the market is looking forward to.  The crucial level of support is 10675 for the month of January 2019. Happy New Year ! Happy Trading ! 

FEBARUARY 2019 SERIES 

 The EMA/SMA levels above clearly points out to consolidation of Nifty between 10650 to 10900 levels during the January series.  With the interim budget due to be presented today, the breakout zone for February series is 10850 level and breakdown zone is 10650 level.  Not much can be expected for the market to do reacting to an interim budget. Trading the levels using EMA/SMA as a guideline is the way forward for trading February series.  Happy trading !

MARCH SERIES 2019

Nifty has consolidated around the 10800 levels over the past 4 months with swing high of 11100 upside and 10550 on the downside.  With result season out of the way and the financial year ending March, nothing much can be expected for the markets to do two months prior to the general election and market is likely to trade sideways and remain in this range of 11100 to 10550 in the March series.  Happy trading!

Nifty enters 2018 @ all time high close levels !

Nifty enters the new year of 2018 at all time highs.  This is a similar situation to 10 years ago when the 2007 year-end close was at all time high of 6138 only to crash after making new high of 6357 a week later on January 8, 2008. Will history repeat itself after a gap of 10 years - difficult to predict but easy to exercise caution while trading at these levels.  Analysts project 11300 to 12,500 levels for 2018. After the unprecedented run of the market in 2017 from 8250 to 10545, a time for correction is likely to fructify earlier than expected.  Wishing all readers of this blog a very prosperous and happy 2018.  God Bless and Happy Trading !!! 

Update from valuation perspective ! 

Nifty continues making life highs throughout this month and at the time of writing this update has closed at all time high of 10894.  Above is the P/E ratio of Nifty.  The valuations are reaching overstretched zone with P/E ratio climbing well above 27 now, and this can lead to a sudden and steep rise over the next couple of days. Caution needs to be exercised at this juncture and trailing with tight stop losses from trading perspective . Happy trading !

NIFTY UPDATE - MARCH 2018 SERIES

Nifty as stated in last update was overstretched from P/E ratio valuation perspective and  precisely gave up lot of its gain in the backdrop of the NPA scam in the banking sector.  Nifty has now been in correction mode throughout the series of February.  Now, Nifty enters the corporate financial year end month of March and has largely priced in the impact of negatives versus the positives and looks to consolidate at the lower end of 10200 as a bottom.  Going forward, the month of March will be most likely a consolidation and reversal month after a suitable bottom is found. Corrections could be deeper should Nifty break below 10200 and make a quick fall towards 9900 levels if bad news from global market trickles in to encourage bears to go for heavy shorting. The month of March essentially looks likely to be woven around the 10200 levels with  +/- 250 points upside/downside.  
Happy trading !

NIFTY UPDATE - APRIL 2018 SERIES

As discussed in the earlier update for March series, Nifty levels weaved around 10200 +/- 250 points and the high of the series was 10478 and low was 9948. Now for the month of April, the RBI policy and the annual corporate results will trigger the market pricing for the coming fiscal 2018-2019 and Nifty is largely like to trade above 10K levels.  A look at the long term and short term EMA/SMA levels of Nifty can be used as a guide to arrive at breakout/ breakdown levels. All the short term EMAs and SMAs are above the 10K level which is a breakdown level now and the highest of the EMA/SMA pack is the 55-SMA/EMA @ 10550/10395. A positive market response to good corporate results will definitely take Nifty past 10500 in April. Conversely, a negative response to the corporate result will take Nifty at least 350-500 points below 10K to 9650-9500 .  Nifty has closed the March series at 10113 which is at the lower  of the price band of 10000-10500.  When the market opens after the long weekend on April 2nd, the direction of the April series will take shape.  Happy trading!

NIFTY MAY 2018 NIFTY SERIES - RETRACEMENT MODE !

Nifty enters May series after spending the April series in making up the lost gains of the earlier months and so far has retraced a shade above the 50% retracement levels to close @ 10617 in April series.  Currently the market is midway between the result season and also the crucial Karnataka assembly elections of May 12th, and these events will dictate the outcome of the May series. A retracement towards 10900+ with support of 10450 levels seems likely for the first two weeks of May 2018 and continue the trend that has been established in April series. Happy trading !



NIFTY JUNE 2018 SERIES - RETRACEMENT TO BREAKOUT MODE ?

 Nifty ends May 2018 series by retracing back to crucial breakout levels of 10735.  With an extremely robust GDP Q4 numbers of 7.7% released, the valuations of the indices could get re-rated, and the market can likely make an attempt to make a double top.  The first indication of this scenario came with the huge short covering in the Bank Nifty to end the May series at close to 27K levels.  A few days into the June series will confirm the breakout trend. If breakout fails, then the support of 10415 formed in May will get tested and a rangebound scenario could be envisaged.  The immediate trigger is the pricing in GDP figures in the market for making a breakout.  The next trigger in June that follows is the RBI monetary policy of June 5th.  The reversal level for the series of June will be index closing below 10415 spot price - till  then it is in retracement/breakout mode.  Happy trading ! 

NIFTY JULY 2018 SERIES - OVERVIEW

 Nifty enters July series with June series closing on a flattish level at 10589 spot price.  The above EMA/SMA table clearly shows the resistance level for Nifty will be the 34 and 55 EMA/SMA levels of 10710 and 10675.  On the downside support levels, the 144 EMA level of 10484 and the 233-EMA/SMA levels of 10365/10285.  With half of the year 2018 having elapsed on time scale, it seems Nifty has consolidated at 10500 levels  and breakdown below this level only will worry the investors.  With USDINR and crude prices fluctuating and breaking out, there will be some volatility on the index and corporate earnings will dictate the fair pricing of the Nifty constituents going forward.  Happy trading !!!

NIFTY AUGUST 2018 SERIES - @ ALL TIME HIGH

Nifty enters August series @ all time highs.  The footnote on the EMA/SMA table analysis explains the status of Nifty, which has given a breakout and currently trading at all time highs.  The immediate support is @ 10900+ levels and no level can be predicted as resistance in a market that has broken out.  Happy trading !!!

NIFTY SEPTEMBER 2018 SERIES - CONSOLIDATION TIME ?

Nifty as expected did not face much resistance at any level after the breakout above 11171 in the August series and touched an all time high of 11760 and ending the August series at an all time highest  close for the series.  With the result season out of the way, some consolidation around the 21-day SMA/EMA level can now be expected to form a support zone. With two-thirds of the year 2018 over, the remainder 4 months of this year could take Nifty to fresh all time highs provided the supports get established well above 11200 levels .  The month of September can now be expected to be for consolidation and finding an appropriate support  for Nifty.  Happy trading !!!



NIFTY OCTOBER SERIES 2018 - BOTTOMING OUT ?

Nifty failed to consolidate around 11475 levels in the Setpember series and slipped to below 11k levels to make a low of 10866 and closed the series @ 10977 spot price.  The correction of almost 900 points triggered by USDINR currency depreciation, crude oil price and some concerns in the banking sector and housing finance sector, namely panic fall in prices of YES  Bank and DHFL stock prices.

Now for October series the main trigger event is the RBI monetary policy review in the first week followed by the corporate earnings result season of the Q2.  The expected support levels for the October series before the trigger events could well be the the 233-EMA/SMA level of 10700+ and  retracement towards the resistance level of 11175-11400-11600.  Happy Vijayadashami.!!! Happy trading!


NIFTY NOVEMBER SERIES - RETRACEMENT TO 10700+ !

The October series ended after the failure of Nifty to cross 10700 mark and gave up all the gains to make new low at the beginning of the November series at 10004.  The bulls in the November series have their task cut out to give support to the market at the 10K+ levels and force a close above 10700 in November series.  The bears on the other hand will wait and watch and panic only if Nifty crosses 10550+ levels on closing basis in the early part of November series - say before November 12th. An oversold market and the festival season could well mark the turning point for the market from bearish mode to a range bound retracement mode for the rest of 2018.  Happy trading !!!

NIFTY DECEMBER SERIES 2018 - RETRACEMENT ON!

Nifty ends November series after retracing the 50% level of the total fall from 11760 to 10004.  The bulls succeeded in forcing the close above the 61.8% level of the fall from upside in November series.  This level is @ 10675, which now will be the support/ reversal level for December series. The upcoming triggers for market to retrace fully towards 11760 levels are the RBI monetary policy on December 5th and the five states election results on December 11th. On the global front, crude prices have declined and INR has appreciated substantially to below Rs. 70.  The FII buying could start as many stocks have corrected significantly now and look attractive  for investment.  The calendar year 2018 has  been quite eventful for the Nifty index falling twice towards 10,000 and then reversing.  Nifty perhaps could well end up the year 2018 above 11,000 levels if triggers in market works in its favour in the December series.  Happy New Year ! Happy trading !

Nifty Update - 8250 crucial level for 2017 !!!

The first month of the year 2017 has been eventful with Nifty setting a range low of 7893 towards the end of last year (December 26th) and then bouncing back smartly for 700 points gain to close the first month of the year @8602. A lot of volatility and changes can be expected in 2017 and the level to watch throughout the year would be 8250 level - 50% swing level of past one month.  Expectations from the preponed budget on February 1st and later in month of March the UP state assembly results will have a bearing on the market in the immediate short term.   Happy trading !!!

NIFTY AFTER FEBRUARY BUDGET-2017

Nifty once again has come to face resistance at 8825 levels, which was the breakout /resistance zone in 2016.  The market has received the budget well and a steady rise from the 8600+ levels has been achieved towards the current resistance level 8825.  In 2016, this level of 8825 was breached briefly and Nifty never really go much beyond it then.   Bulls would want a close above this 8825 level to take Nifty to all time highs in the month of February 2017 itself.  Happy trading !!!

NIFTY BREAKOUT HERALDS  SPRING OF 2017 :)

As expected, post budget retracement and now after the crucial assembly polls, the market has given breakout towards all time highs and all looks stable in the market for growth.  With prices trading for the first time in unchartered ranges, it remains to be seen how far the breakout after 2 years goes now.  The level of pre-breakout close level of 8935 is now the trailing stop loss for bulls trading the index.  With the index trading at all time highs and the past 6 trading sessions closing well above 9000 levels, Nifty heralds a bullish spring season for 2017.  Happy trading !!!

NIFTY ENTERS JUNE 2017 AT LIFE HIGHS !

The index has consistently traded above the previous high (9120) levels since March 14, 2014 and the expected spring time breakout continues unabated and Nifty touched life high of 9649 as it enters the month of June.   The trend seems to point out towards bullish views.  However, having started the year 2017 with 8250 as reversal point, Nifty has posted a 1000+ point gain over the past 5 months and now cautious approach and some sideways movements can be expected.  Trailing stop loss for bulls will be 9250 spot price.  The monsoon season begins and if the country has a good monsoon then Nifty could well go past 9800-10200 kind of levels sustaining above 9500 levels.  Let us see how it pans out in the next couple of months.  Happy trading !!!

NIFTY closes above 10K+ !

Nifty has closed above 10,000 mark today and this year 2017 has been memorable for the index since the reversal it made above 8250 since January 2017 and month-on-month closed at higher levels with a consistent upward trajectory. At this juncture, it would be futile exercise to project a specific target for trading.  However, the above Fibo level charts do show that since the breakout above previous high of 9119 since March 12th, the one way trajectory has been meeting the Fibonacci levels so far and currently at 138.2% extension level has been crossed conclusively, which effectively can be taken as a reversal point now.  This level is now 9990 level., an amazing journey for the index.  Happy trading !!!

NIFTY AT FRESH LIFE HIGHS FOR SAMVAT 2074 !

Nifty enters muhurat trading at life highs with a significant breakout above 8250 since January 2017 and now  has consistently traded above the previous high (9120) levels since March 14, 2014.  Nifty can be expected to touch 100-200 points above from the current high of 10250 on and/or after muhurat trading.  These levels look slightly overvalued and traders of the index need to exercise caution till confirmation of reversal is not established.  A total rise of over 30%  in around 200 sessions of this year is a great achievement for the index taking the low of 7893 on December 26, 2016 as a base level.  At this point in time, it would be difficult to set a reversal level for index; however, a close below 10100 can be taken as a short-term reversal point for the index.   I wish all the readers of my Nifty updates for 2017 a very happy and prosperous festival of Diwali !  Happy trading !

First Update of 2016 !!!

An update on the same old chart posted in March 2015 with two long term scenarios explained above and below 8135.  The scenario of Nifty below 8135 level has been unfolding and Nifty closes for the first time in 52 weeks below 7000 level and likely to face resistance @ 7365 and the second bearish target of 6555 is just 400 points away.  It will be a short on rise scenario for the next 2-3 months until and unless the volatility index (VIX) does not fall below 20 levels and brings stability to the prices.  The volatility tends to go berserk in a highly confused market with panic setting in. 

Happy trading !!!

Second Update - 2016

Volatility index contained below 20 and Nifty creeps up from the lows of 6825 in February towards 7950 so far and now likely to attempt 8050-8135 based on the results of the top players.  Happy trading !!!

BREXIT AND AFTERMATH 

Further to the earlier update, the Volatility has breached the level of 20 in the aftermath of the Brexit vote and the instant reaction of the market to drop into an indecisive phase.  Once again, it can be observed that the technical level of the 8135 in the market is once again into the picture and Nifty is weaving around this level as a pivot.  Happy trading !!! 

NIFTY DECEMBER 2015 SERIES !!!

NIFTY 50 - enters the December series after getting support @ 7725.  There is no major change in the support/resistance levels of Nifty levels since March 2015 and the bulls will hope 2015 year closing around 8400+ levels after facing resistance at levels of 8800-8400-8135 levels to finally take support at 7550-7750 levels.  The key level remains 8135 spot price.  Happy trading !!! Wish all the blog readers very HAPPY 2016 in advance  :) :) :) 

NIFTY OVERVIEW - APRIL 2015 - OCTOBER 2015 !!!

NIFTY VIEW FOR NEXT 45 DAYS: LEVEL OF 8135 IS IMPORTANT LEVEL ON DOWNSIDE BREAK OF WHICH WILL CONFIRM THE BEAR TARGET. DEAD CAT BOUNCE UP TO 8545 IF SUSTAINED THEN BULLS MIGHT ENTER THE MARKET BIG TO TAKE IT PAST THEIR TARGET OF 9120 AND 9705 ON CLOSING BASIS. ONLY TRIGGER FOR BULLS IS EXPECTATION OF GOOD AND STRONG CORPORATE RESULT SEASON BEGINNING APRIL 9TH AND ENDING IN THE NEXT 45 DAYS !!! HAPPY TRADING !!!

NIFTY CONTINUES TO TRADE AROUND THE MAJOR BREAK DOWN LEVEL OF 8135 SINCE APRIL WITH RETRACEMENT UP TO 8845 AND LIMITED DOWNSIDE.  THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN APRIL AND TARGETS IN CHART REMAIN VALID EVEN 60+ DAYS AFTER POSTING THIS VIEW.  THE POWER OF TECHNICAL LEVELS ON LONGER TIME FRAME IS UNFOLDING NOW AFTER A YEAR OF BREAKOUT BETWEEN MARCH 6, 2014 (Nifty 8400) to  MARCH 4, 2015 (Nifty 9119 high).  HAPPY TRADING !!!

NIFTY ENTERS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER CRACKING UNDER GLOBAL CUE PRESSURE GIVING A NEW LOW OF 7670 AND NOW BOUNCING BACK .  LEVELS OF THE CHART POSTED IN THIS POST STARTING FROM APRIL ARE PROVING TO BE HOLDING VERY WELL AND NOW ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 8135  SPOT PRICE WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR BULLS.  IN A CRACKING MARKET SUPPORT LEVELS ARE HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO BREAKING DOWN.  LEVEL OF 7345 IS THE ONLY LIKELY SUPPORT LEVEL BELOW 8135.  A TRADING RANGE BRACKET IS GETTING FORMED AND MOST LIKELY BE 7345-8135/8350 FOR SEPTEMBER SERIES !!!

NIFTY ENTERS OCTOBER SERIES AND GIVING A NEW LOW OF 7539 IN SEPTEMBER AND FACING RESISTANCE @ 8055.  REVERSAL LEVEL FOR OCTOBER REMAINS 8135 WHICH HAS PROVED TO BE A GOOD PIVOT POINT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS.  RESULT SEASON STARTS AFTER OCTOBER 10TH AND RBI RATE CUT EXPECTED ON SEPTEMBER 29TH CAN TAKE NIFTY PAST 8135 TOWARDS 8545.  SEPTEMBER 29TH RBI POLICY REVIEW WILL BE VIEWED VERY CAREFULLY BY THE MARKET BEFORE BREAKING THE 8135 BARRIER.  HAPPY TRADING !!!

Happy 2015 !!! Nifty January 2015 series Overview !!!

WISH ALL READERS OF MY BLOG A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND PROSPEROUS  HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

January 2015 Series Overview:

The December series began with the highest life time close of 8588 and then corrected substantially towards the lowest close of 8029.8 and now ends the series just above the important level of 8174 after filling a few gap up and gap down openings. January 2015 is likely to be an even bigger eventful month with just one level being of interest to both bulls and bears - 8310. Above 8310, Nifty should make new highs around 8800/8900 with the result season due in the middle part of January. Before that , till around January 5th, some range bound levels between 8150-8310 can be expected. Below 8150, a quick fall/visit to 7725/7655 cannot be ruled out to test the 233-day EMA/SMA levels as the year is almost getting over and testing longer term moving average of 233-EMA/SMA will be an appropriate bottom to begin the new year with. Happy trading and Wish you and your family a VERY HAPPY 2015 !!!