Trade Plan - December 30 & December 31, 2010

Nifty finally breaks above the 55-Day SMA level of 6025 today and trades above 6050 for most of the last hour of trading today. VWAP @ close is 6045. Nifty closes @ 6060 well above all EMAs and SMAs and looks bullish @ EOD today.

1) Tomorrow is the December series expiry and Nifty will be volatile below 6037 levels. As long as Nifty sustains above 6050 levels one can expect the December series closing above 6085-6120 to set up a bullish day for the last trading day of the year on Friday, December 31st. If Nifty closes above 6085 levels tomorrow, then December 31st could be a very good trading day for longs for a target of 6135-6180-6200.
2) Below 6037 levels, Nifty could be volatile and close around 5980-5950 too tomorrow in the December series. Strict stop loss for longs will be 6037. The intra day chart of today shows the one-way move of Nifty today.  If Nifty closes tomorrow below 5980, then the same levels of today could be expected the day after on the weekend.
3) With the year 2010 drawing to a close in another two sessions, a weekly chart captures the journey of Nifty from 5202 on January 1, 2010 onwards with some important levels to be kept in mind in the coming New Year. Will be back with intra day trade plans only next year from January 2, 2011. Till then, Cheers! Have a very safe and prosperous New Year! HAPPY 2011! Happy Trading!!!

Trade Plan - December 29, 2010

Nifty trades in a very narrow range around 5-DEMA/SMA levels and never broke out on either side of 6011 or the low of 5982. Volumes are very low and no major moves can be expected till expiry day primarily due to low volumes. VWAP @ close is 6013. Nifty closes flat once again above 5-DEMA/SMA level @ 5996.

1) View for tomorrow remain same as that for today, longs only above 6018 for targets of 6085-6120. Strict stop loss will be 6007 for intra day longs on spot values.
2) With just two sessions left for December series expiry and lack of volumes, trading in the next two days will be dull unless Nifty closes above 6085 on upside with volumes or below 5965 on the downside. Till then trading range likely to be 5940-5965-6018-6050. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 28, 2010

Nifty opens in green and fails to sustain above the important level of 6018 in the afternoon and finds support at 5990 level. VWAP @ close is 6033. Nifty closes flat @ 5998 near today's low and just above the 5-SMA level of 5995.  The 5-DEMA level is 5987.

1) Nifty needs to trade above 55-Day SMA levels of 6030 tomorrow for this momentum to continue for targets of 6085-6120 and the level of 6018 is a low-risk entry point for going long intra day. Tomorrow Nifty could take U-turn from 5965 levels once again with gap down opening.
2) Nifty is trading above all  EMAs/SMAs except 55-Day SMA which is 6030. Below 5965 Nifty will be bearish.
3) With volatility getting stabilized, there is not much scope to short  without a close below 5965 now. The level of 6007 will be strict stop loss/reversal level intra day for going long and initiating trade above 6018 only will be beneficial for intra day trading to catch the upside. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 27, 2010

The gap down opening gave an opportunity for going long for intra day traders today at 5965-5980 levels and Nifty made high of 6017 and closes the week in bullish mode @ 6012.  VWAP @ close is 6010.

1) Bullish range for Monday will be 6005-6020-6085-6120 levels if momentum picks up. Strict stop loss for longs will be 5985.
2) Bearish range will be below 5995-5965-5900. Strict stop loss for going short 6007.
3) With Quarter-3 results season beginning this month end, close of Nifty above 6200 this coming week will be a bullish sign. A close below 5965 will be bearish.
4) The weekly chart depicts the levels to be looked for this coming week if Nifty holds 5965 levels.  Happy X-Mas! Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 24, 2010

Range bound session without volatility and Nifty trades between today's morning high and yesterday's low  without any clear direction. VWAP @ close is 5996. Nifty closes @ 5980.

1) Tomorrow is an important session and weekend close above 6085 would be bullish. Short term support of 5965 has held well over the past three trading sessions.
2) Gap up opening scenario is possible tomorrow and Nifty could take off from the opening itself as 5965 has held well over the past 3 sessions.
3) Another possible scenario is Nifty has a flat weekend close tomorrow and next week only it will take direction after X-mas weekend based on global cues.
4) Trading below 5965 for more than an hour with a gap down opening will take Nifty towards next important support level of 5850.
5) Nifty is trading above all EMAs. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 23, 2010

Gap up opening and Nifty traded in bullish zone but failed to consolidate above 6018 level and after 2 pm fell to 5958 and remaining in a no-trade zone without direction through the last one hour and 5965 level has provided support today afternoon. VWAP @ close is 6013. Nifty closes @ 5984.

1) Nifty needs to trade above 6000 and consolidate above 6018 for moving up further for targets of 6050-6085-6135. Resistance of 6018-6030 levels need to be overcome. Volumes are low.
2) Trading below 5965 will set Nifty for a move down towards 5900-5850-5750 once again.
3) With closing of Nifty above all EMA levels and above 5965 level today, bias is still positive and the levels need to be watched carefully - 5965 & 6018.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 22, 2010

Another session of consolidation around 5990 level with ORB break out giving good intra day scalping trades throughout the day as Nifty swung in a narrow range of 5980-6007 till close. VWAP @ close is 6005. Nifty closes @ 6000.

1) Consolidation around 6018 level of spot value is the next step which should happen tomorrow if there is a gap up opening  and bullish range for tomorrow will be 6000-6020-6050-6085-6120. The level of 5965 will remain as strict stop loss for going long and break of 5980 will be the first sign of intra day weakness.
2)  A gap down opening, short can be initiated only if Nifty trades below 5965 for the first two hours or else 5965 will work as an entry point for going long tomorrow.
3) The chart shows intra day action of today and the important levels. One more day of consolidation and the chances of Nifty closing this week above 6135 looks bright subject to consolidation around 6018 levels with no major dip below 5990 level tomorrow.
4) The recovery of bank nifty today was the key to consolidation of Nifty above 5965 levels. Nifty is bullish above 5965 level and volatility seems to be under control now and overnight position with 5900PE for longs could be an effective hedge in the December series.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 21, 2010

A quiet start to the week after the long weekend and Nifty climbed steadily from the ORB break out above 5930 to consolidate around 5965 level and touched a high of 5985. After 3 pm Nifty cracked below 5965 levels and traded below it around 5945 levels.  VWAP @ close is 5955. Nifty closes flat @ 5947.

1) Nifty will be strong only above 5965 levels for targets of 6060-6085. Being long above 5990 for these targets is safe for longs. Strict stop loss of 5965. The level of 5965 extremely crucial now.
2) Short below 5940 for target of 5850-5800 is a possible scenario tomorrow if Nifty trades below 5965 in the morning session without volumes. The next four sessions should see a good break out above 6085 or fall to 5640 below 5965.
3) The intra day chart depicts today's action which was volatile below 5965 towards the close and mostly revolved above 5950 levels today.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 20, 2010

Nifty after trading below 5900 throughout the morning session was clearly without direction till 1 p.m. and negatively biased and was at the break down point of 5860. The RBI credit policy was the trigger and Nifty steadily recovered 100 points from the day's low and closes in the green. VWAP @ close is 5917. Nifty closes the weekend @ 5949.

1) A strong follow up session is required to maintain this momentum on Monday when market opens after the strong weekend close this week to confirm the support level of 5860 and close above 6085 levels.
2) If bullish momentum continues on Monday, then 5965 is the trigger to go long for target of 6020-6085-6120. Strict stop loss or reversal point will be 5930 for intra day trading.
3) Break below 5930, the lower supports that will again get tested will be at 5875-5850-5825.
4) The chart uploaded shows weekly chart of Nifty from May 25, 2010 till date. Nifty closes just above the crucial 55-DEMA level of 5943 after 145 sessions from the low of 4787 on May 25, 2010 in 30 weeks.   Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 16, 2010

Gap down opening and Nifty was in negative territory throughout the day and revolved around the 5-DEMA level of 5907. VWAP @ close is 5910. Nifty closes at 5892.

1) For tomorrow, 5907 again will be an important level for intra day trading. Above 5907 Nifty could test 5935-5965-5995. Strict stop loss/reversal level will be 5860.
2) Break of today's low will make Nifty bearish once again and will likely fall to 5800-5750-5700 levels.
3) Tomorrow is the last trading session of the week with Friday being a holiday. Expect Nifty to swing from the levels of 5907 on upside and break below 5860 on downside. Currently @ EOD, the bias is negative, but market can go any way.
4) Market is certainly waiting for RBI policy decision and the banking stocks will move accordingly.  With the oil price hike, inflation will be a concern and higher inflation concern is negative news. The effect of various scams is keeping the market in negative mode since last two weeks. The good news has to trickle from the QE-3 earnings of companies during the month end.  December series will lose steam if it fails to cross 5965 levels on closing basis and without volumes market will remain in a sideways and volatile range.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 15, 2010

Nifty takes support at 5888 levels and remains largely range bound throughout the day touching a high of 5954. VWAP @ close is 5942. Nifty closes @ 5944.

1) Gap up opening means bullish range tomorrow will be 5965-5985-6050-6085. A close above 6050 ensures that Nifty closes above all short-term and medium term  EMA/SMA levels and will be in buy mode.
2) Gap down opening means negative sentiment prevails still and then break of the level of 5907 will be pull back to 5880-5850-5820 levels. The level of 5907 is strict stop loss for going long and intra day reversal below 5907 only.
3) Nifty needs to remain above 5945 levels with this momentum continuing into tomorrow and then go above 5965-6000 levels.  The 34-SMA is 6018 and 55-SMA is 6048 and Nifty needs to close above these two levels and come back into the retracement channel above 5965 level.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 14, 2010

Nifty opens in the green, falls below the 5DEMA level to low of 5795 and recovers intra day to cross the opening high of 5887 to 5913 levels. VWAP @ close is 5870. Nifty closes @ 5907 near the day's high and is in buy mode now.

1) For tomorrow, Nifty needs to sustain above 5885-5900 level throughout the day and close above 5965-6050 levels if positive momentum continues whole of tomorrow. Longs strictly above 5880-5910 levels only. Strict stop loss will be 5860 for going long tomorrow.
2) Break of 5860 will again make Nifty look bearish and it may not recover like today from 5800 levels. No two trading days will be the same ever. In the event Nifty breaks 5860-5840 levels, then Nifty could fall below today's low and test 5720-5690 levels.
3) The volatility is high and swings either side of 5860 levels like today can be expected on downside too tomorrow. The chart depicts the swings of today's trade from the level of 5860. Trade safely and happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 13, 2010

After opening in the red and registering a new low of 5721 in the first 15 minutes of trade, the ORB breakout above 5765 was a good trade for longs intra day. Overcoming resistance around 5820 levels, Nifty went up further to touch a high of 5865. VWAP @ close is 5836. Nifty closes the week @ 5857.

1) Today's rally is primarily a short covering rally and technical levels need to be crossed for confirmation. For Monday, the bullish levels will be 5880-5965-6000 if fresh buying creeps in with volumes. A close above 5965 is minimum requirement for some bullish sentiments to return to the market. Strict stop loss for going long is 5820.
2) Break below 5820, means Nifty is heading towards 5630-5500-5400 levels.
3) The market sentiment is extremely cautious which is reflected by the increase in the annualized volatility and there could be wild swings either side of 5860/5820 levels. Trade safely. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 10, 2010

Nifty breaks support levels of 5860 levels and touches a low of 5742.  VWAP @ close is 5848.  Nifty closes @ 5766.

1) It is short on rise up to 5875 levels only with reversal only above yesterday's break down level of 5965 on a closing basis. Tomorrow being the weekend, a short covering rally can be expected and could take up this market by 50 odd points from 5820-5870-5900 levels tomorrow.
2) The market sentiment has turned bearish with more and more negative news and at the moment the technical levels have taken a beating.  Shorting at these levels of below 5750 is also risky proposition and it is better to play the ORB breakout for intra day trading and going with the trend.  The market is now driven by negative sentiments and it will take a few sessions for the negatives to be factored in and the sentiments to subside.
3) Over a few sessions or next week, market should cool off and find a steady bottom around 5630-5555-5400 level if it tanks any further from today's low of 5742 or else it should retrace back and close above 5965 levels.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 9, 2010

Nifty opened below 5960 and it was straight away shorting opportunity for today's trading session and touched a low of 5879. VWAP @ close is 5930. Nifty closes @ 5904 below all the short-term DEMA levels.

1) For tomorrow if Nifty recovers with gap up opening and sustains above 5940, then 5966 is the trigger level to make a long entry and go ahead from there for targets of 5995-6020 intra day. Stop loss for going long is 5940. The Bank Nifty has corrected quite a bit and needs to recover for Nifty to sustain above 5966 levels.
2) Failure to cross 5966 and remaining below this level becomes a shorting opportunity on rise to 5950 levels with strict stop loss of 5986.
3) Break of today's low of 5879 should take Nifty to 5835-5790 levels. Overall scenario is bearish now and the level of 5860 (89-DEMA) needs to be held in the remaining two days of the week and close above 5966 on Friday. Nifty could also take U-turn from the level of 5860 and this level needs to be watched on the downside.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 8, 2010

Nifty has traded in the lower band below 6000 levels throughout the day and revolved around 5965 levels with an intra day dip to 5939 and recovering to 5990 and then being mostly around 5966 level. VWAP @ close is 5992. Nifty closes flat once again @ 5977 and a good consolidation has happened around the levels of 5960-6010 over the past 5 trading sessions.

1) The level to watch tomorrow is 5986. Trading above 5986 without breaking this level could likely take Nifty to 6050 level with short covering itself. Fresh buying will come into play only above 6085 levels. Till then this range bound scenario between 5965-6065 will likely continue.  The bullish zone will be 6000-6050-6085-6135. Level of 5984 will be a good stop loss for intra day longs. Higher volumes will come in only above 6085 levels.
2)If the negative bias continues below 5960 (55-DEMA level), then Nifty could go below today's low of 5939 to test 5900-5880-5840 levels.
3) There have been five consecutive closings above 5960 levels  with significant resistance around 6020-6050 levels and now any close below this level will truncate the retracement towards 6300+ levels. The annualized volatilty is getting lower and what can be assumed from a trading perspective is that a higher bottom will be in place sooner. Whether today's bottom of 5939 levels hold good in the short term will only be confirmed if we close above 6085 levels on a weekly basis without breaking today's low.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 7, 2010

Gap up opening and Nifty takes off from the low of 6023 to touch a high of 6069 and later significant resistance around 6050 levels drags it down to fill the gap up of Friday's close. VWAP @ close is 6048. Nifty closes flat @ 5992 and is consolidating around the levels of the 34-DEMA. The 5-DEMA level is 5964 now, which is an important level. Resistance around 6050 levels needs to be crossed now.

1) For tomorrow, gap up opening and remaining above 6018 levels would be a repeat of today's session and longs above 6025 for targets of 6085-6120. Strict stop loss/reversal below 6013 levels.
2) Gap down opening could break the support of 5960 and Nifty could test 5935-5900 levels. The level of 6013 will be reversal point for shorting if gap down opening happens.
3) Levels to watch tomorrow is the support at 5966 and the resistance at 6085 levels. Nifty needs to close above 6085-6135 levels to maintain upward momentum. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 6, 2010

Two days of consolidation around the 5995 (34-DEMA) level and the trading range between 5995-6023 initially and in between as expected had a dip towards the all important support level of 5965 level and recovering from there to touch 6018 levels. Nifty remains in the retracement mode after the drastic fall in November series below 6085 levels. VWAP @ close is 6009. Nifty closes @ 5993 just below 34-DEMA and is currently in sell on rise mode.

1) The level of 5952 can be considered as the final support of this retracement on the upside. Nifty has traded above the 55-DEMA level and facing resistance around the 34-DEMA level of 5995 and intra day sessions have been quite choppy, but the volatility has given some good points intra day above 5995 and on break of 5985 levels and from 5965 upwards back up.
2) For Monday the bullish zone will be 5965-6040-6100 with a strict stop loss of 5948 just below the level of 5952. Crossing 6018-6030 zone will be the challenge for traders taking long trades.
3) Failure to close above 5966 levels on Monday could likely take Nifty down to 5885-5770 levels. Strict stop loss for going short will be 6030 on closing basis.
 4) The two-day chart shows the price channel to be between 5965 and 6013 @ close. This zone will be a good trading opportunity on Monday too with minimal risk for longs with a s/l of 5958 and for shorts with s/l of 6025.
5) The second chart shows the channel in which Nifty must trade to retrace back to 6300+ levels in the December series.  Happy weekend!  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 3, 2010

As expected a gap up opening and Nifty failed to breakout on either side of the first hour's trading range of 6029-5980 and mostly revolved around the 5995 level which is the 34-DEMA level. VWAP @ close is 6015. Nifty closes @ 6012.

1) It was a hotly contested trading session today between levels of 5990-6018 today. The fact that Nifty closed above all short term EMAs makes it look bullish. However, not able to break past 6018-6030 level where huge resistance is seen. A drop to 5960 is very much likely tomorrow.  For tomorrow the level of  5985 will be the break down point. Bullish range for tomorrow will be 6000-6039-6085-6105.
2) Break of 5990-5985 levels will take Nifty down to test 5960 levels and failure to hold 5960 levels could cause Nifty to slide back to the 5900-5880 levels.  Levels to watch out tomorrow 6018 and 5885.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 2, 2010

A trend reversal day for Nifty today and crossed the 55-DEMA level of 5950 and traded firmly above that level in the afternoon. VWAP @ close is 5946 up from the VWAP of 5845 levels of yesterday. Nifty closes @ 5961 just below the important level of 5966.

1) Now gap up openings can be expected once again and Nifty must now overcome the 34-DEMA level of 5995 tomorrow. Bullish range will be 5935-5995-6020-6085.
2) Break of 5915 levels will take Nifty down to 5885-5820 levels.
3) Overall sentiment is getting bullish and a close above 6085 will confirm the bullish sentiments. So, longs only above 5935 for intra day with strict stop loss of 5915. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 1, 2010

The good GDP numbers lifted the sentiments of the market and after trading range bound between 5775-5810, Nifty took off after testing the low of 5768 and surpassed the reversal level of 5845 and made a high of 5892. VWAP @ close is 5848.  Nifty closes @ 5863.

1) Tomorrow for intra day, the level of 5885 is very important. Nifty needs to trade above this level and close above 5965 levels. The 55-DEMA is 5950 now and crossing 5950 will bring in fresh buyers and Nifty will make an attempt to go higher above 6020-6085 levels. The bullish trading zone for tomorrow will be 5850-5885-5935-5965-6020.
2) Break of 5850, will be a sign of weakness and  Nifty will again retest 5820-5750 levels on the downside. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 30, 2010

Nifty took support around Friday closing levels and was in the green throughout the day and managed to touch a high of 5843. VWAP @ close is 5828 signifying the resistance of 5820 has been overcome. Nifty closes at 5830 and should cross the reversal level of 5845 tomorrow.

1) Nifty has managed to trade above 5820 after 2:30 pm consistently on spot values and needs to cross 5845 tomorrow for further upside for targets of 5965 on closing basis this week. The strict stop loss or reversal levels for this week will remain 5790.
2) Break below 5790 can give a slide of up to 100-150 points to around 5690/5630 levels.
3) The bullish trading range for tomorrow is 5800-5965 with reversal below 5790 levels only. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 29, 2010

The week ends on a negative note with Nifty breaking 5750 levels and testing 5690 in morning trades and some good intra trades between 5750-5790-5815 levels today.  VWAP @ close is 5798. Nifty closes the week @ 5752.

1) Negative bias continues and bearish range for next week is 5750-5550. The market sentiment is very negative and the real estate stocks and banking stocks have taken a much needed beating.
2) A short covering rally could be there between 5650-5800 like today's intra day trade or between 5560-5750. Upside only if Nifty crosses 5900 levels and closes above 5965. In such a scenario, 5845 level on spot price will be the reversal point next week.
3) Overall trend is negative now and market needs to find a suitable bottom and hence this volatility. Whether today's bottom of 5690 holds, only the opening and closing levels of Monday will determine.  Happy trading! Happy weekend!

Trade Plan- November 26, 2010

The negative news of another financial scam involving LIC housing gave fillip to the negative direction of the market and after being range bound 40 points from yesterday's close price, Nifty tanked after 2:30 pm to break the 5820 barrier and fell to 5780 levels. VWAP at close is 5855 and Nifty November series closes near the day's low @ 5799 after a life high closing of 5312 earlier this month.

1) Now, December series begins on a negative note and the first week will be very volatile in search of a good support. With negative sentiment in the banking/real estate sector, short sellers are in full control, till some positive development does not set in. Global cues have been positive over the past two days, but domestic news has led the market down.
2) Broad range of trading for Nifty in December series will be 5555-5680-5966-6085-6165 levels. With volatility being so high, intra day play gives better chances now to take trades when appropriate levels arrive with early entries and exits when trend favors the direction of the trade.
3) The financial irregularities happening in the most trusted government institution LIC will make investors hungry to invest in trusted companies. No wonder Infosys stood tall today amongst the ruins of a totally negative market and that was the best indicator early in the morning for traders today to go short on the index and long in Infy. Trade safely! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 25, 2010

Nifty opened @ 5946 levels and traded between 5928 to 5976 levels with significant resistance around 5966 levels and expectedly the negative bias took place after 2 pm when the day's low of 5928 broke and Nifty fell below 5900 levels.  VWAP @ close is 5937.   Nifty closes @ 5865 after touching a low of 5833.

1) Tomorrow will be highly volatile trading day being the settlement day of November series and it is better to avoid intra day trade tomorrow.
2) The chart above shows reversal on upside can happen from only the opening level on the board after the pre-market session and the opening level can be used as an entry point for long trades intra day. For example, today's opening level of 5946 gave an intra day 25 points upside and reversing from that level gave another 75+ points on the downside intra day. It is clearly sell high and buy low time for intra day.
3) A new low below 5825 can be expected around 5790 or 5700 levels as per fib retracement numbers. Nifty November series has seen the life high closing of Nifty and then a reversal to new lows in 8 weeks breaking important support of 5966.  If this fall continues tomorrow, then Nifty November series could close at a new low tomorrow. But the bulls will press hard for a closing above 5950 levels minimum tomorrow and the level of 5850 intra day will be a good point to initiate a long trade by bullish brave heart traders with a stop loss of 5820 for a target of 5950.  It is the short sellers who now need to defend their points in November series and expect the unexpected tomorrow.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 24, 2010

Gap down opening and Nifty never sustained above the opening levels  and was below the day's pivot throughout the day and broke down below 5937 levels once again to touch a low of 5824 and the negative bias continues. Nifty recovered primarily by short covering with high volumes. VWAP @ close is 5915.  Nifty closes at 5935.

1) The market is in a limbo with the different scams on the domestic front and today the global cues are negative, thus leading to high volatility. Coming to levels of Nifty, 5966 again is the intra day level for upsides of 5990-6045-6125. With the kind of volatility these levels could be reached intra day itself. This scenario only with a gap up opening and remaining above 5966 levels throughout the day.
2) This week's bias is negative and first downside target will be today's low of 5824 and 5790-5700.  The bounce back from today's low does not change the negative bias for the November series, and the November Nifty series could close around 5950-6050 levels after swinging back and forth for the remaining two days.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 23, 2010

Nifty consolidates around 5966 in the morning and took off to surpass the Friday high of 6013 today. VWAP @ close is 5967 indicating the importance of this level for this week. Nifty closes @ 6010.

1) The bullish range for tomorrow will be  5995-6085-6135. Nifty closing above 6135 is the first criteria for safe long positions. Today's move is largely interpreted by me as short covering and roll overs of positions to December series happening.  Any move above 6135 will be a big one later this week.
2) Any break below 5966 will take Nifty to much below 5865 to 5770.
3) Expect a highly volatile week with 5966 as reversal point. The chart depicts the Fib retracement level of 6045 as very important level to cross and a weekly close above 6135 now.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 22, 2010

Nifty failed to go past the opening high of 6013 and it was sell on rise until it tanked further towards 5863 levels after 2:30 pm.  VWAP has now fallen down to 5950 and there was significant resistance at 5966 levels in the afternoon as Nifty did attempt to come back from the morning low of 5930 up to 5990 levels. Nifty closes in the red @ 5890.

1) This is the first weekly close in more than two months below 5900 and all technical levels (EMAs and SMAs) have fallen apart. Nifty is a sell on rise and buy on dips mode and vice versa.  Now the level of 5990 will become a good reversal point and closing above 6135 remains the first criteria for more upsides. This scenario certainly not in the November series.
2) There are some concerns on the fundamentals of telecom sector with the 2G scam and the banking index is losing lot of its inflated weight and coming to reasonable levels.
3) Trading the bounces along with short covering rallies provide good intra day gains with the kind of volatility on the index. Trading zone for Monday will be 5820-5965-5985.   For intra day the level of 5966 will be important on Monday. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 19, 2010

Nifty as expected was sell on rise after opening bell and fell below the strong support of 5937 levels to 5907 level and dramatically  recovered to go past 6000 levels after the fall. 6035 of spot levels are high resistance zones and Nifty barely managed to stay above 6018 levels even after recovering from the lows.  VWAP @ close is 6004.  Nifty closes just below VWAP levels @ 5999.

1) Gap up opening and sustaining above 6035 spot levels, then upside possible only above 6085 levels tomorrow for target of 6135+ with stop loss of 5966.
2) Having broken the support of 5937 levels, Nifty will be very volatile and downside targets will be 5860-5835 levels.
3) All rallies from lows of day are short covering rallies and can be traded quite fruitfully.  The level of 6085 is strict stop loss for sell on rise and buy on dips intra day levels and the level of 6035 is a good entry point for taking long positions intra day if Nifty sustains around this level.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 18, 2010

The opening range breakout on downside below 6088 levels put Nifty into negative territory throughout the day and Nifty fell breaking all important supports and closes in the red below 6000 levels @ 5988.  VWAP @ close is 6029.

1) Tomorrow is a holiday and market opens on November 18, 2010. Nifty has broken all important medium term EMAs/SMA and gravitating towards the higher time frame EMAs/SMAs.
2) With increased volatility now, Nifty should trade between 5900-6100 in the immediate short term. Reversal for further upside only with a close above 6135-6185 levels.
3) With only 6 sessions remaining for November series, volatility could take the index further down below to 5770 levels as market is sell on rise mode. Any reversal in this series should be above today's close of 5988 exactly at 55-DEMA level primarily due to short covering rallies. The level of 6085 remains reversal levels for going long with resistances at 6135 and a close above 6185-6225.

Trade Plan - November 16, 2010

Nifty consolidated around 6065-6085 levels throughout the morning session after touching a low of 6039 and recovered above 6085 in the afternoon to touch a high of 6128. VWAP is 6104 @ close. Nifty closes in the green @ 6121.

1) Bullish range for tomorrow is remaining above 6100 levels on intra day dips and decisive crossover above 6135 level  for target of 6185-6220.
2) Reversal point is below 6085 for targets of 6020-5980-5940.
3) The rally today is primarily a short covering rally and only a close above 6200 levels will ensure this upward momentum continues. Tomorrow's trading is very crucial for this week for the climb above 6200 and towards 6300+ by this weekend.
4) A highly volatile range would be 5980-6200 otherwise for this week with 6085-6135 being the fulcrum levels for upside or downside.

Trade Plan - November 15, 2010

A weekend sell off and index was in negative territory throughout the day to break all short term EMA and SMA levels. VWAP @ close is 6153.  Nifty closes near the lowest point of the day @ 6071 after touching a low of 6056.

1) Trend is negative and next major important support level is 5982 and this level also happens to be the 55-DEMA levels now. The chart depicts the support the level of 5982 has provided over the past month.
2) If Nifty manages to remain above 6085 level and later 6105 levels on Monday, then reversal can be expected above 6135 levels for an upside target of 6200-6225 on closing basis primarily due to short covering rally.
3) Failure to sustain above 6085 levels then Nifty is looking down towards the 55-DEMA level of 5980 and before that minor support of 6035 is already within striking distance of today's close.  Thus the support at the level of 6035 assumes significance on Monday.  Break of 5980, then 5870-5770 is looking possible.  Happy trading! Happy weekend!

Trade Plan - November 12, 2010

Nifty tanked below 6285 levels quite easily and has filled up the gap up openings of the past week.  VWAP @ close is 6264. Nifty closes at 6194 after touching a low of 6179.

1) Further downside may take Nifty again to 6135 levels as it has broken the 13-DEMA level of 6193 too. Break of 21-DEMA/21-SMA level of 6149/6132 should take it to 6090 levels.  It is short on rise now with downside target of 6135-6090 tomorrow.  Reversal of this fall only if Nifty closes above 6265-6285 levels after taking support around the 21-DEMA/21-SMA level.
2) Now Nifty has clearly breached the 5-SMA/5EMA levels today and will need to find stability around the 21-DEMA level of 6149 or 21-SMA of 6132.
3) Levels to look for tomorrow 6135 on downside and a short covering rally thereafter or a gap up opening and Nifty taking U-turn from 6260 levels.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 11, 2010

Another day of consolidation around the 6270-6300 levels and Nifty traded in a small range throughout the day. At this juncture with today's close, Nifty looks to go either way now towards 6190 or 6400. VWAP is 6312 @ close. Nifty closes @ 6276.

1) 6285 remains the point around which Nifty is moving this week. Bias is still up with rising EMAs and SMAs on the technical levels. Targets remain same @ 6320-6350-6390-6425 on upside.
2) Downside target will be 6230-6190-6150 on closing basis.
3) The 5 SMA is now 6289 and again above 5-DEMA (6263) indicating the consolidation at these levels over the past three days. A break out on upside or downside of this value of 5-SMA/5-EMA is imminent soon. Happy trading!

Trade Plan- November 10, 2010

Market makes a good recovery after testing the 6250 levels in the morning session to cross past 6300 once again. VWAP @ close is 6306. Nifty closes @ 6301. The last two trading sessions were consolidation days around the levels of 6285 and technical levels look much more stronger now.

1) View remains unchanged and the 6285 level is the important fulcrum for this week and provided good trades long and short intra day today. The next level to watch will be how Nifty reacts above 6357 levels.
2)  Gap up opening with upper targets will be 6340-6380-6400-6435.
3) Any break down below 6285 is trigger to short intra day and deeper falls below 6250 means 6190-6150. The 5-SMA today @ close is 6266  and has moved up above 5-DEMA (6257).  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 09, 2010

Consolidation around 6280 levels and traded mostly between 6280-6300 levels the whole day. Nifty touched a low of 6268 and managed to reach 6300 in the afternoon, but lost momentum after that and closes near the day's low and below the pivot point @ 6273.  VWAP @ close is 6302.

1) Tomorrow, a gap up opening above pivot point means 6295-6315-6350-6390 will be the trading range.
2) Gap down opening and negative bias means a lower trading range of 6285-6240-6215 levels. The level of 6285 is very important level for this week and reversal point on downside should be above 6240 levels on closing basis if at all Nifty falls below 6250 and tests 6200-6190 levels. The 5 SMA on closing basis comes to 6230 levels today and 5-DEMA above 5-SMA @ 6234.

Trade Plan - November 8, 2010

Muhurat trading session went on expected lines and Nifty closes at life high and will definitely make another new high on Monday 8, 2010. VWAP is now @ 6329. Nifty closes @ 6312.

1) A new trading range will be established over the next two weeks and some consolidation of the technical levels will take place before the QE-3 results in January 2011.
2) The new trading zone as per Fibo levels depicted in the chart comes to 6285-6485-6585-6652. Momentum is positive with huge buying seen above 6200 levels on Thursday.
3) Three consecutive days of gap up and the Thursday closing levels of 6281 will be the first trigger of break down. Until then it is buy on dips and sell on rises market. For Monday 6290-6340-6390-6425 is the trading range. Watch out for Reliance, a great buy at these levels now and can be traded in tandem with Nifty now.
4) Nifty is trading now in unchartered territory and at life highs and more fireworks in store on upside. Trade safely! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 5, 2010 - Muhurat Trading

Another gap up opening @ 6209 and with a low of 6199 Nifty gradually traded up to retrace over the high of 6284 last month to touch 6290 and closes at the highest closing price of the year today. VWAP @ close is 6275.  Nifty closes @ 6282.

1) Tomorrow's muhurat trading session for 1 hour in the evening should see Nifty crossing 6300 mark and the trading range should be small between 6300-6330-6360.
2) A more volatile muhurat trading session means a trading range of 6255-6330-6360 levels.
3) Reliance has broken out from its trading range and should climb up further now to take Nifty to newer highs.
4) Coal India listed today and has traded above 30% from the IPO price. The addition of this large cap stock into the market now only makes the market stronger and a choice for investors amongst large cap stocks. Have a cracking Diwali! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 4, 2010

Gap up opening above 6150 and Nifty remained in this range throughout the day and touched a high of 6182. VWAP @ close is 6196.  Nifty closes above the important hurdle of 6150 and closes @ 6160.

1) There could be a small dip to around 6100-6135 to fill the gap up opening of today. A gap up opening means 6180-6240 levels on the bullish side.
2) Trading range for tomorrow will be 6100-6135-6175-6240. Break of 6100 will mean intra day break down tomorrow. Longs only above 6180 or if support is found at 6120-6135 level on dips.
3) A chart of the index heavy weight Reliance is attached. Reliance monthly chart shows accumulation of the stock over a period of 6 months and the stock has been mainly traded between 950-1100 levels for a long time now. If Nifty has to make new highs, then Reliance is a stock to watch now amongst the index stocks apart from the already fired up banking, auto, and pharma stocks. Will Reliance breakout above 1095 levels towards 1200-1300 during this month with its excellent quarterly results.  Also, the power stocks look  good for up move along with telecom sector stocks like RCom and Bharti after having consolidated to take the index to newer highs.  For this the level of 6135 must be held over the next week consistently on closing basis.  Tomorrow is also the listing of Coal India IPO, which will set the trend for the fireworks on upside on muhurat trading the day after on weekend.  Happy Diwali! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 3, 2010

As expected a day of consolidation with a flat opening and Nifty managed to remain in the crucial 6090-6120 range throughout the day and has triggered the important level of 6135 today with a high of 6138. The EMA and SMA levels thus look stronger today than on the weekend.  VWAP @ close is 6151. Nifty closes above the pivot level @ 6119.

1) Views remain same as yesterday and the trading range for tomorrow should be 6120-6180 on bullish side with 6135-6150 as the resistances.
2) Gap down opening or break of 6085 (yesterday's low) can likely take Nifty down to 6050-6030 intra day.
3) Shorts are covering on dips and Nifty has traded flat today. As of now it is buy on dips up to 6085 levels and breakout will be above 6135-6140 of spot value.

Trade Plan - November 2, 2010

Nifty back in the upper band trading zone of 6060-6135 today after a huge gap up. VWAP @ close is 6145.  Nifty closes at 6117.55.

1) A flattish or gap up opening tomorrow means going long above 6135-6155 for target of 6190-6220. Stop loss in such a scenario will be 6100.
2) Gap down opening and break of 6100-6090 levels means Nifty will retrace to 6060-6045 levels and if these levels are sustained then crossing 6120 levels and 6135 will be hurdles again.  Today again 6135 has not been tested and this level needs to be taken out first.
3) Tomorrow could be a range bound day and the most likely range that will emerge to trade is 6045-6060-6125-6190-6250. The level of 6090-6100 will be crucial support this week and remaining above these levels makes the technical levels stronger over the next couple of days. With Diwali round the corner and good results of  the index heavy weight RIL and strength of Bank Nifty, up trend seems to be a strong possibility this week and the level of 6200 resistance will be taken out quite easily.

Trade Plan - November 1, 2010

Nifty continued its downward journey whole of morning session to below 34-DEMA levels and touched a new low of 5937 this week. Nifty futures took support at 5966 and rallied thereafter.  VWAP @ close is 6017 much below yesterday's November series closing VWAP of 6074. Nifty closes @ 6017 in the green. The rally after 2:30 p.m. can be interpreted as short covering of short positions built yesterday.

1) If this late Friday afternoon rally continues on Monday, then long only above today's high of 6032 on Monday for target of 6060-6100 on spot levels. A close above 6150 is very much important for further upsides.
2) The chart gives interpretation of this week's scenario and Nifty is clearly gravitating towards the long-term EMAs until and unless it does not close above 6150 levels on Monday/Tuesday and veers away from the 34-DEMA levels by a close at least 100 points above it to start with. The volatility is good and gives good trades just by following levels and booking profits intermittently.  Happy weekend!  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - October 29, 2010

A highly volatile expiry to the October series with a heavy fall from 6045 levels to touch a low of 5968 breaking the 34-DEMA levels.  Mid afternoon on break of 6060 levels it did look that Nifty would zoom up but could not cross above 6071 and tanked after 3 pm in one stroke from 6055 to 5968. VWAP @ close is 6032. Nifty closes @ 5987 levels and looks short-term bearish as the premiums in Nifty futures have dried up and gone into discount. Today's rally upside was mainly driven by short covering up to 6070. November series VWAP @ close is 6074.

1) Reversal point for Nifty remains 6060 levels with a close above 6135 for any strong up move.
2) Downside target below 5966 will be 5868 (55-DEMA) level from where reversal can be expected.
3) It is short on rise strategy for tomorrow with reversals above 6060 of spot value only.
4) Volatility is high and stop losses must be kept very tight.