Trade Plan - October 1, 2010

Nifty traded in negative territory and broke the level of 5966 today on downside and consolidated around this level in the afternoon and it was a good day for scalping between 5972-5992 levels both ways up until it  finally breached the 6000 level after 3 pm to catch positional shorts unaware to touch a high of 6048.  September Nifty series expires @ 6029.95 on spot and this has been the best month of the year for trading Nifty.

1)      Now focus on October series trading from tomorrow.  October series VWAP is 6013.77.  View for tomorrow is to be long only above 6050 with strict stop loss of 6020.

2)      Short on fall below 6005 level with strict stop loss of 6020 for target of 5960 (below today’s low).   A close above 6060 only will be bullish.

3)      If Nifty falls to 5930 level tomorrow, it would be a good buying opportunity for a good intra day gain like today for going long with a stop loss of 5915.  

Trade Plan - September 30, 2010

Nifty opened with gap up but failed to sustain above 6050 level and traded throughout the mid-morning and afternoon session below 6032-6020 level signalling a day for short selling on rise. Nifty broke the all important 6000 support level to trade below it and touched 5980 after 2:30 pm.  VWAP @ close 6020.46.  Nifty has closed below 6000 @ 5991.

1) Short on rise only with strict stop loss of 6032 for targets of 5966-5930.
2) Long above 6048 only with stop loss of 6032.  6032 is now an important level to watch this week and would work something like an intra day reversal point.  A closing above 6060 only will be bullish and a close below 6000 is bearish.
3) The September series has lost the bullish steam a bit after the big breakout and now Nifty needs to find a good support level over the next two to three trading sessions.  Last Thursday low of 5932 level could provide the required support to move up to 5985-6000 tomorrow.  Till then it is sell on rise market or a decisive close above 6060.

Trade Plan - September 29, 2010

VWAP is 6037.31.  Nifty failed to surpass 6050 on spot today and largely traded with a negative bias and tested the 5-DEMA levels of 5992. Later above 6020 recovered to yesterday's level of 6036 after 3 pm to have a flat closing today @6029 and Nifty looks bullish for tomorrow.

1) Views for tomorrow with long above 6050 levels only with strict stop loss of 6027 for a target of 6090-6120.
2) Break of 6020 on spot will see downside levels of 5990 (below today's low) and 5950.  Stop loss for shorts will be 6042 on spot level.
3) A gap up opening above 6060 could likely take the index past 6100 tomorrow.

Trade Plan - September 28, 2010

VWAP is 6070.  The gap up opening today gave little chance of a long trade in early morning trade. However, Nifty had remained range bound throughout the day and gave a small long trade from 6050 to 6066 levels and later the break of 6050 gave a short trade up to 6026. Nifty has closed much below today's VWAP level of 6070 @ 6035.65.

1) Volatility will be high with just three sessions for September series expiry and intra day play for tomorrow for going long will be employing the opening range breakout above 6068 level only for target of 6100 of spot levels.  Strict stop loss will be 6052.
2) Bearish range will be triggered only if Nifty trades below 6015 level tomorrow for target of 5980-5950 with strict stop loss of of 6042.
3) Today's close at 6035 is neither bullish nor bearish and it would be hazardous to play a guessing game for trading intra day. Levels to watch tomorrow 6068 for longs and break of 6015 for going short. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - September 27, 2010

VWAP is 6006 and volatility is 0.89.  Nifty took off above 5966 on Friday and touched high of 6029 on spot levels and closed at 6018 with a premium of 16 points in futures. Nifty looks bullish for Monday September 27, 2010.

1) Buy zone is 5992-6029 levels for targets of 6060-6090-6108. Stop loss for intra day trade is 5980.  A close above 6060 will be bullish.
2) Fall below 5966 is trigger for going short on rise with stop loss of 6037 for target of 5931-5900. This scenario is likely only with a gap down opening.
3) A range bound trading range likely to be 5977-6075 levels with positive bias.

Trade Plan - September 24, 2010

VWAP is 5971 and volatility is 0.88.  Today during first half of session Nifty took support at 5955 levels and trade mostly above 5966 and gave a good long trade up to 5993 levels but failed to sustain above it.  Subsequently, later mid afternoon Nifty cracked below 5966 and touched 5932 on spot giving a good shorting opportunity and closed at 5959.

1) Tomorrow's opening will be crucial. A gap up opening and 5977 level is the level to watch on spot. Being above 5977 levels Nifty could make an attempt to recover above 6000-6040. In this scenario, Nifty could close above 6050 still and bias can turn positive for next week.  Strict stop loss remains 5966 on spot level tomorrow.
2) Failure to sustain above 5977 and move above 5990 level should take Nifty down to newer low and 5916 is a crucial level to watch. In such a scenario short covering around these levels will take Nifty above 5-DEMA which is now 5948.  So some interesting scenarios to trade Nifty is there tomorrow.  Since today's close is below 5966, the level to watch is 5924-5916.  Obviously consolidation is happening and a good move next week before the September series expires looks possible still.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - September 23, 2010

VWAP 5996 and volatility is 0.9.  Range bound trading today with a negative bias and VWAP is marginally down today from 6010 level of yesterday.  Break of 5970 on spot and 5983 in futures gave a good trade for short and later in the afternoon Nifty recovered smartly from 5970 (5983 NF) and touched a high of 6000 (6015 NF in futures) and a good long trade too was possible.

1) Now the 5-DEMA level comes into play as it has risen to 5940 level today. Break of 5940 is a trigger to go short for targets of 5920-5886 .
2) Nifty remaining above 5982  should take Nifty  up to 6011-6035. Strict stop loss for intra day can be 5966 for both longs and shorts tomorrow on closing basis.
3) A range bound trade could be between 5940-6030. A close above 6050 is bullish for more upside and close below 5920 is mildly bearish.

Trade Plan - September 22, 2010

VWAP is 6010.30 and volatility is 0.92.  Nifty opened with a breakout above 9015 in early trades and went on to touch 6032.80 in spot and 6046 in futures and then lost momentum thereafter with a sharp fall to 5962 level and the long trade between 5970-6018 of spot levels worked today.

1) Significant resistance observed around 6018 levels and premium on Nifty futures shrinked considerably. Hence tomorrow, playing the opening range breakout above 6035 only with a strict stop loss of 6010 would be a good strategy for longs with probable target of 6067-6090.
2) Another probable scenario is that Nifty consolidates between 5970-6050, but close should be above 6040 for the bullish momentum.
3) A break below 5970 could trigger a fall up to 5940-5910-5890 and futures could well trade at a discount around these levels indicating a consolidation phase before the September series expiry and rollover of positions to October series will start soon. This scenario could play out most probably with a gap down opening. Of note, the 5-DEMA levels is now 5916.

Trade Plan - September 21, 2010

VWAP is 5959.91 and volatility is 0.95.  This week opens with a smart breakout above 5932 levels and sustained buying helped Nifty cross 5968 and finally ended up at 5980 on spot and futures closed @ 6004. The big boy of the index Reliance has gained smartly now and Nifty certainly looks bullish for higher targets.

1) Upside breakout will be above 6015 levels for tomorrow.  A gap up opening once again could easily make Nifty test 6050 levels tomorrow itself.  Stop loss has to be deep with increased volatility and 5932 seems to be the logical point to put a stop loss.
2) A gap down opening means long once again above 5970 only with 5932 as stop loss with targets of 6000 and 6035.
3) September series of 2010 certainly is a series to remember for the bulls after a long time.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - September 20, 2010

VWAP is 5894.95 and volatility is 0.89.  Nifty closed with hefty premium on Friday and made a low of 5860 and traded mostly within 5870-5895 range, neither breaking previous high of 5901.65 nor breaking the all important 5823 level and Friday was a good day for both short and long positions intra day between 5880-5910 range in futures.

1) The run up over the past two weeks has been from 5348.90 to 5901.65, a gain of 550+ points. Using Fibonacci calculations now, upside breakout level comes @ 5932+ for target of 6050-6250+ and downside levels 5820-5560 levels. So, 5870 level assumes great significance now for the coming week with 5932 as breakout point. Strict stop loss for long positions  is 5854 and taking long positions above 5870 only or breakout of 5902 on spot prices.
2) Short positions below break of 5839 levels only with strict stop loss of 5870 on closing basis.

Trade Plan- September 17, 2010

VWAP closing is 5865 and volatility is 0.88.  Nifty spot touched low of 5815 and futures price low was 5826. However, today both intra day longs and shorts had a good time with Nifty again making a new high of 5901 in spot and 5916 in futures. Nifty has closed below VWAP at 5828 on spot and has show first sign of a downtrend.

1) Nifty trading below 5823 is the first confirmation of weakness now and going short for intra day seems possible now depending on the opening. A gap up opening is an opportunity to short now around 5880 levels for a target of 5820-5770.  Strict stop loss for short is today's high of futures 5916. Ideal situation to short will be to short on rise above 5880, so losses are minimized in case of a breakout above 5902 of spot.
2) If Nifty sustains above 5902 levels, then a newer high of above 5950-5975 can happen too, but today's close much below VWAP makes it look mildly bearish.

Trade Plan- September 16, 2010

VWAP is 5851.93 and volatility remains unchanged at 0.9.  Nifty makes another high and breaks above 5855 levels today to make a high of 5869 in spot and 5875 in futures.

1) Now for tomorrow, playing the breakout above 5875 of spot is right way forward, so going long above 5875 for a target of 5910-5957 with strict stop loss @ 5823.
2) Range bound scenario will offer buying opportunity between 5845-5865 for a target of 5885-5910 again with a strict stop loss @ 5823.
3) Break of 5810 (today's low in futures), with a small stop loss @ 5823, gives a small opportunity to go short intra day for a target of 5770-5745. The rising 5 DEMA is 5745 now and it is playing in the mind too much now.  For Nifty to remain bullish, a close above 5855-5890 would be fine to enter the weekend trading day of Friday, September 17th for a higher close.  Hence the level of 5823 is very important for tomorrow's trading session.

Trade Plan - September 15, 2010

VWAP is 5806 and volatility is 0.9. Nifty made another new high and has good support at 5775 level today and mostly traded in 5790-5828 range after making high of 5838 today.

1) Closing has been just below VWAP, so buy zone for intra day trade tomorrow can be taken between 5806-5825-5835  levels for first target of 5858-5885-5910  levels. Strict stop loss in such a scenario will be 5770.
2) Should Nifty open with gap down opening, then short positions below 5770 only with stop loss of 5795 for downside target of 5750-5715-5695.
3) The 5-DEMA has risen to 5693 now and this level needs to be watched closely as sooner or later Nifty will test the 5-DEMA level. Whether it happens after further rise of the 5DEMA needs to be seen. However, "Let  trade be in direction of what a trader sees and not what he foresees". Levels are the best indicators.

Trade Plan - September 14, 2010

VWAP is 5728 and volatility is  0.90.  A big breakout today crossing the two levels of 5655 and 5705 @ the opening bell itself. For intra day the opening range breakout played very well today till the close zooming from 5711 to 5777 high in futures.

1) After this breakout, Nifty likely to consolidate in the range of 5705-5800 levels. For intra day trading, the best strategy now is to try for the next breakout above 5780 levels for a target of 5815-5840. Stop loss in this scenario for intra day will be 5755.
2) If Nifty corrects in the next trading session, then 5715 to 5735 levels is a buy zone with strict stop loss of 5695.
3) With this upside breakout, shorting opportunity is not possible until there is a decisive close of Nifty below 5650 level hereafter. The  5-DEMA has risen to around 5645 now, so ideally a close below 5640 only presents with a shorting opportunity.
4) With volatility rising, trading with caution is absolutely necessary and considering deeper stop losses might be necessary.

Trade Plan - September 13, 2010

VWAP is 5620.17 and volatility is 0.76.  Nifty failed to close above 5651 on Thursday but is still mildly bullish with close above 5632.

1) Bullish zone is 5607-5632-5655-5705 levels. Intra day break out level to watch is 5655 levels. Close above 5655 is bullish. Strict stop loss for intra day longs is 5595.
2) Bearish trade set up will be 5630-5590-5545-5520 levels. Break down level to watch intra day is Nifty trading below 5589. Close below 5589 is bearish. Strict stop loss for intra day shorts is 5639.
3) Range bound  trading set up will be between 5590-5650 levels.

Trade Plan - September 09, 2010

VWAP is 5591.65 and volatility is 0.77. Nifty traded most of today between 5577 to 5610 and did not break 5565 exit point for longs and closed @ 5607.85 (highest close of 2010) with futures trading at 10 points discount.

1) On upside today Nifty has faced resistance between 5615 to 5625 levels and could not go above these levels. Based on this observation, it is best to go long only above 5620 levels with a strict stop loss of 5600 for a target of 5650-5690. Only short covering before the long weekend will take Nifty up tomorrow.
2)  Intra day short can be initiated only on break of 5572 levels with strict stop loss of 5600.
3) For the up move to continue a firm close of Nifty above 5650 on closing basis tomorrow will indicate a bigger  move towards 5750 over the next week two weeks.

Trade Plan - September 08, 2010

VWAP is 5587.94. Volatility is 0.79.

1) Nifty view remains largely unchanged from yesterday and trade set up for a bullish zone will from 5578-5610 to 5632-5660-5685 levels. However, Nifty futures is trading at a discount of over 15 points now. Strict stop loss will be 5565 of spot  levels for longs.
2) A range bound trading zone will be between 5550-5600 levels.
3) A mildly bearish trading zone will be 5530-5565-5610.
4) The opening range of first half hour tomorrow will be significant and trading light is the best strategy tomorrow.

Trade Plan - September 07, 2010

VWAP is 5552.88 and volatility is 0.81. Nifty had a gap up opening and gave a breakout above 5525 today to close at 5476 levels.

1. Tomorrow, September 07, 2010 could be a rangebound day with high volatility and whipsaws and will give good chance for both long and short positions.
2. The bullish zone if momentum continues will be above 5587-5595 levels only for a target of 5620-5640. In such a scenario strict stop loss for longs will be 5563.
3. If gap down opening, then the range could be between 5515-5597 levels. Strict stop loss in such a scenario will be 5500.

Trade Plan - September 06, 2010

VWAP closing is 5484.95 down from 5493 of yesterday. Volatility is 0.70.

1. Nifty has held 5470 levels well over the past two days.
2. VWAP has come down marginally by 9 points from 5493 levels, but Nifty closed in premium after trading in discount for almost the entire day.
3. A minor dip could be expected on Monday September 6, 2010 to 5458 levels.
4. Buy zone is 5458-5493 levels for a target of 5535-5570.
5. If gap up opening go long above 5505-5515 only. (Strict stop loss will be 5493) in this scenario on closing basis.
6. If gap down opening, go long only above 5458 with a strict stop loss of 5440 (risk to reward is best in this scenario) for a target of 5495-5520 .
7. 5447 is  short term support, so short positions intraday only below 5440 level.

Trade Plan - September 03, 2010

VWAP is 5493.08 and volatility is 0.73. Today Nifty traded in a very narrow range and closed flat in today's buy zone @5486, but gave a prelude of two outcomes likely tomorrow on September 3, 2010. If Nifty sustains above 5500 levels, then new highs of 2010 could be achieved tomorrow. Keeping this view first, buy zone will be 5485-5500-5510 only with a strict stop loss of 5474 for a target of 5534-5568. A gap down opening will give an opportunity to buy above 5458 only with a strict stop loss of 5443 for a target of 5480-5495-5510 levels.

Trade Plan - September 02, 2010

VWAP is 5447.41 up from 5385 of yesterday. Volatility is 0.75. As expected bounce above 34-DEMA of 5422 happened today.  Last Friday high of 5495.50 needs to be scaled up  first for confirmation of further upside and new highs of Nifty now. Thus buy zone for September 2, 2010 should be above 5489-5496-5500 levels only for a target of 5515-5530. Strict stop loss of 5470. If there is gap down opening tomorrow, then buying above 5445(closing VWAP levels and 5 DEMA) for a target of 5470 is possible intraday with a strict stop loss of 5430.