Trade Plan - December 1, 2010

The good GDP numbers lifted the sentiments of the market and after trading range bound between 5775-5810, Nifty took off after testing the low of 5768 and surpassed the reversal level of 5845 and made a high of 5892. VWAP @ close is 5848.  Nifty closes @ 5863.

1) Tomorrow for intra day, the level of 5885 is very important. Nifty needs to trade above this level and close above 5965 levels. The 55-DEMA is 5950 now and crossing 5950 will bring in fresh buyers and Nifty will make an attempt to go higher above 6020-6085 levels. The bullish trading zone for tomorrow will be 5850-5885-5935-5965-6020.
2) Break of 5850, will be a sign of weakness and  Nifty will again retest 5820-5750 levels on the downside. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 30, 2010

Nifty took support around Friday closing levels and was in the green throughout the day and managed to touch a high of 5843. VWAP @ close is 5828 signifying the resistance of 5820 has been overcome. Nifty closes at 5830 and should cross the reversal level of 5845 tomorrow.

1) Nifty has managed to trade above 5820 after 2:30 pm consistently on spot values and needs to cross 5845 tomorrow for further upside for targets of 5965 on closing basis this week. The strict stop loss or reversal levels for this week will remain 5790.
2) Break below 5790 can give a slide of up to 100-150 points to around 5690/5630 levels.
3) The bullish trading range for tomorrow is 5800-5965 with reversal below 5790 levels only. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 29, 2010

The week ends on a negative note with Nifty breaking 5750 levels and testing 5690 in morning trades and some good intra trades between 5750-5790-5815 levels today.  VWAP @ close is 5798. Nifty closes the week @ 5752.

1) Negative bias continues and bearish range for next week is 5750-5550. The market sentiment is very negative and the real estate stocks and banking stocks have taken a much needed beating.
2) A short covering rally could be there between 5650-5800 like today's intra day trade or between 5560-5750. Upside only if Nifty crosses 5900 levels and closes above 5965. In such a scenario, 5845 level on spot price will be the reversal point next week.
3) Overall trend is negative now and market needs to find a suitable bottom and hence this volatility. Whether today's bottom of 5690 holds, only the opening and closing levels of Monday will determine.  Happy trading! Happy weekend!

Trade Plan- November 26, 2010

The negative news of another financial scam involving LIC housing gave fillip to the negative direction of the market and after being range bound 40 points from yesterday's close price, Nifty tanked after 2:30 pm to break the 5820 barrier and fell to 5780 levels. VWAP at close is 5855 and Nifty November series closes near the day's low @ 5799 after a life high closing of 5312 earlier this month.

1) Now, December series begins on a negative note and the first week will be very volatile in search of a good support. With negative sentiment in the banking/real estate sector, short sellers are in full control, till some positive development does not set in. Global cues have been positive over the past two days, but domestic news has led the market down.
2) Broad range of trading for Nifty in December series will be 5555-5680-5966-6085-6165 levels. With volatility being so high, intra day play gives better chances now to take trades when appropriate levels arrive with early entries and exits when trend favors the direction of the trade.
3) The financial irregularities happening in the most trusted government institution LIC will make investors hungry to invest in trusted companies. No wonder Infosys stood tall today amongst the ruins of a totally negative market and that was the best indicator early in the morning for traders today to go short on the index and long in Infy. Trade safely! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 25, 2010

Nifty opened @ 5946 levels and traded between 5928 to 5976 levels with significant resistance around 5966 levels and expectedly the negative bias took place after 2 pm when the day's low of 5928 broke and Nifty fell below 5900 levels.  VWAP @ close is 5937.   Nifty closes @ 5865 after touching a low of 5833.

1) Tomorrow will be highly volatile trading day being the settlement day of November series and it is better to avoid intra day trade tomorrow.
2) The chart above shows reversal on upside can happen from only the opening level on the board after the pre-market session and the opening level can be used as an entry point for long trades intra day. For example, today's opening level of 5946 gave an intra day 25 points upside and reversing from that level gave another 75+ points on the downside intra day. It is clearly sell high and buy low time for intra day.
3) A new low below 5825 can be expected around 5790 or 5700 levels as per fib retracement numbers. Nifty November series has seen the life high closing of Nifty and then a reversal to new lows in 8 weeks breaking important support of 5966.  If this fall continues tomorrow, then Nifty November series could close at a new low tomorrow. But the bulls will press hard for a closing above 5950 levels minimum tomorrow and the level of 5850 intra day will be a good point to initiate a long trade by bullish brave heart traders with a stop loss of 5820 for a target of 5950.  It is the short sellers who now need to defend their points in November series and expect the unexpected tomorrow.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 24, 2010

Gap down opening and Nifty never sustained above the opening levels  and was below the day's pivot throughout the day and broke down below 5937 levels once again to touch a low of 5824 and the negative bias continues. Nifty recovered primarily by short covering with high volumes. VWAP @ close is 5915.  Nifty closes at 5935.

1) The market is in a limbo with the different scams on the domestic front and today the global cues are negative, thus leading to high volatility. Coming to levels of Nifty, 5966 again is the intra day level for upsides of 5990-6045-6125. With the kind of volatility these levels could be reached intra day itself. This scenario only with a gap up opening and remaining above 5966 levels throughout the day.
2) This week's bias is negative and first downside target will be today's low of 5824 and 5790-5700.  The bounce back from today's low does not change the negative bias for the November series, and the November Nifty series could close around 5950-6050 levels after swinging back and forth for the remaining two days.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 23, 2010

Nifty consolidates around 5966 in the morning and took off to surpass the Friday high of 6013 today. VWAP @ close is 5967 indicating the importance of this level for this week. Nifty closes @ 6010.

1) The bullish range for tomorrow will be  5995-6085-6135. Nifty closing above 6135 is the first criteria for safe long positions. Today's move is largely interpreted by me as short covering and roll overs of positions to December series happening.  Any move above 6135 will be a big one later this week.
2) Any break below 5966 will take Nifty to much below 5865 to 5770.
3) Expect a highly volatile week with 5966 as reversal point. The chart depicts the Fib retracement level of 6045 as very important level to cross and a weekly close above 6135 now.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 22, 2010

Nifty failed to go past the opening high of 6013 and it was sell on rise until it tanked further towards 5863 levels after 2:30 pm.  VWAP has now fallen down to 5950 and there was significant resistance at 5966 levels in the afternoon as Nifty did attempt to come back from the morning low of 5930 up to 5990 levels. Nifty closes in the red @ 5890.

1) This is the first weekly close in more than two months below 5900 and all technical levels (EMAs and SMAs) have fallen apart. Nifty is a sell on rise and buy on dips mode and vice versa.  Now the level of 5990 will become a good reversal point and closing above 6135 remains the first criteria for more upsides. This scenario certainly not in the November series.
2) There are some concerns on the fundamentals of telecom sector with the 2G scam and the banking index is losing lot of its inflated weight and coming to reasonable levels.
3) Trading the bounces along with short covering rallies provide good intra day gains with the kind of volatility on the index. Trading zone for Monday will be 5820-5965-5985.   For intra day the level of 5966 will be important on Monday. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 19, 2010

Nifty as expected was sell on rise after opening bell and fell below the strong support of 5937 levels to 5907 level and dramatically  recovered to go past 6000 levels after the fall. 6035 of spot levels are high resistance zones and Nifty barely managed to stay above 6018 levels even after recovering from the lows.  VWAP @ close is 6004.  Nifty closes just below VWAP levels @ 5999.

1) Gap up opening and sustaining above 6035 spot levels, then upside possible only above 6085 levels tomorrow for target of 6135+ with stop loss of 5966.
2) Having broken the support of 5937 levels, Nifty will be very volatile and downside targets will be 5860-5835 levels.
3) All rallies from lows of day are short covering rallies and can be traded quite fruitfully.  The level of 6085 is strict stop loss for sell on rise and buy on dips intra day levels and the level of 6035 is a good entry point for taking long positions intra day if Nifty sustains around this level.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 18, 2010

The opening range breakout on downside below 6088 levels put Nifty into negative territory throughout the day and Nifty fell breaking all important supports and closes in the red below 6000 levels @ 5988.  VWAP @ close is 6029.

1) Tomorrow is a holiday and market opens on November 18, 2010. Nifty has broken all important medium term EMAs/SMA and gravitating towards the higher time frame EMAs/SMAs.
2) With increased volatility now, Nifty should trade between 5900-6100 in the immediate short term. Reversal for further upside only with a close above 6135-6185 levels.
3) With only 6 sessions remaining for November series, volatility could take the index further down below to 5770 levels as market is sell on rise mode. Any reversal in this series should be above today's close of 5988 exactly at 55-DEMA level primarily due to short covering rallies. The level of 6085 remains reversal levels for going long with resistances at 6135 and a close above 6185-6225.

Trade Plan - November 16, 2010

Nifty consolidated around 6065-6085 levels throughout the morning session after touching a low of 6039 and recovered above 6085 in the afternoon to touch a high of 6128. VWAP is 6104 @ close. Nifty closes in the green @ 6121.

1) Bullish range for tomorrow is remaining above 6100 levels on intra day dips and decisive crossover above 6135 level  for target of 6185-6220.
2) Reversal point is below 6085 for targets of 6020-5980-5940.
3) The rally today is primarily a short covering rally and only a close above 6200 levels will ensure this upward momentum continues. Tomorrow's trading is very crucial for this week for the climb above 6200 and towards 6300+ by this weekend.
4) A highly volatile range would be 5980-6200 otherwise for this week with 6085-6135 being the fulcrum levels for upside or downside.

Trade Plan - November 15, 2010

A weekend sell off and index was in negative territory throughout the day to break all short term EMA and SMA levels. VWAP @ close is 6153.  Nifty closes near the lowest point of the day @ 6071 after touching a low of 6056.

1) Trend is negative and next major important support level is 5982 and this level also happens to be the 55-DEMA levels now. The chart depicts the support the level of 5982 has provided over the past month.
2) If Nifty manages to remain above 6085 level and later 6105 levels on Monday, then reversal can be expected above 6135 levels for an upside target of 6200-6225 on closing basis primarily due to short covering rally.
3) Failure to sustain above 6085 levels then Nifty is looking down towards the 55-DEMA level of 5980 and before that minor support of 6035 is already within striking distance of today's close.  Thus the support at the level of 6035 assumes significance on Monday.  Break of 5980, then 5870-5770 is looking possible.  Happy trading! Happy weekend!

Trade Plan - November 12, 2010

Nifty tanked below 6285 levels quite easily and has filled up the gap up openings of the past week.  VWAP @ close is 6264. Nifty closes at 6194 after touching a low of 6179.

1) Further downside may take Nifty again to 6135 levels as it has broken the 13-DEMA level of 6193 too. Break of 21-DEMA/21-SMA level of 6149/6132 should take it to 6090 levels.  It is short on rise now with downside target of 6135-6090 tomorrow.  Reversal of this fall only if Nifty closes above 6265-6285 levels after taking support around the 21-DEMA/21-SMA level.
2) Now Nifty has clearly breached the 5-SMA/5EMA levels today and will need to find stability around the 21-DEMA level of 6149 or 21-SMA of 6132.
3) Levels to look for tomorrow 6135 on downside and a short covering rally thereafter or a gap up opening and Nifty taking U-turn from 6260 levels.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 11, 2010

Another day of consolidation around the 6270-6300 levels and Nifty traded in a small range throughout the day. At this juncture with today's close, Nifty looks to go either way now towards 6190 or 6400. VWAP is 6312 @ close. Nifty closes @ 6276.

1) 6285 remains the point around which Nifty is moving this week. Bias is still up with rising EMAs and SMAs on the technical levels. Targets remain same @ 6320-6350-6390-6425 on upside.
2) Downside target will be 6230-6190-6150 on closing basis.
3) The 5 SMA is now 6289 and again above 5-DEMA (6263) indicating the consolidation at these levels over the past three days. A break out on upside or downside of this value of 5-SMA/5-EMA is imminent soon. Happy trading!

Trade Plan- November 10, 2010

Market makes a good recovery after testing the 6250 levels in the morning session to cross past 6300 once again. VWAP @ close is 6306. Nifty closes @ 6301. The last two trading sessions were consolidation days around the levels of 6285 and technical levels look much more stronger now.

1) View remains unchanged and the 6285 level is the important fulcrum for this week and provided good trades long and short intra day today. The next level to watch will be how Nifty reacts above 6357 levels.
2)  Gap up opening with upper targets will be 6340-6380-6400-6435.
3) Any break down below 6285 is trigger to short intra day and deeper falls below 6250 means 6190-6150. The 5-SMA today @ close is 6266  and has moved up above 5-DEMA (6257).  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 09, 2010

Consolidation around 6280 levels and traded mostly between 6280-6300 levels the whole day. Nifty touched a low of 6268 and managed to reach 6300 in the afternoon, but lost momentum after that and closes near the day's low and below the pivot point @ 6273.  VWAP @ close is 6302.

1) Tomorrow, a gap up opening above pivot point means 6295-6315-6350-6390 will be the trading range.
2) Gap down opening and negative bias means a lower trading range of 6285-6240-6215 levels. The level of 6285 is very important level for this week and reversal point on downside should be above 6240 levels on closing basis if at all Nifty falls below 6250 and tests 6200-6190 levels. The 5 SMA on closing basis comes to 6230 levels today and 5-DEMA above 5-SMA @ 6234.

Trade Plan - November 8, 2010

Muhurat trading session went on expected lines and Nifty closes at life high and will definitely make another new high on Monday 8, 2010. VWAP is now @ 6329. Nifty closes @ 6312.

1) A new trading range will be established over the next two weeks and some consolidation of the technical levels will take place before the QE-3 results in January 2011.
2) The new trading zone as per Fibo levels depicted in the chart comes to 6285-6485-6585-6652. Momentum is positive with huge buying seen above 6200 levels on Thursday.
3) Three consecutive days of gap up and the Thursday closing levels of 6281 will be the first trigger of break down. Until then it is buy on dips and sell on rises market. For Monday 6290-6340-6390-6425 is the trading range. Watch out for Reliance, a great buy at these levels now and can be traded in tandem with Nifty now.
4) Nifty is trading now in unchartered territory and at life highs and more fireworks in store on upside. Trade safely! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 5, 2010 - Muhurat Trading

Another gap up opening @ 6209 and with a low of 6199 Nifty gradually traded up to retrace over the high of 6284 last month to touch 6290 and closes at the highest closing price of the year today. VWAP @ close is 6275.  Nifty closes @ 6282.

1) Tomorrow's muhurat trading session for 1 hour in the evening should see Nifty crossing 6300 mark and the trading range should be small between 6300-6330-6360.
2) A more volatile muhurat trading session means a trading range of 6255-6330-6360 levels.
3) Reliance has broken out from its trading range and should climb up further now to take Nifty to newer highs.
4) Coal India listed today and has traded above 30% from the IPO price. The addition of this large cap stock into the market now only makes the market stronger and a choice for investors amongst large cap stocks. Have a cracking Diwali! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 4, 2010

Gap up opening above 6150 and Nifty remained in this range throughout the day and touched a high of 6182. VWAP @ close is 6196.  Nifty closes above the important hurdle of 6150 and closes @ 6160.

1) There could be a small dip to around 6100-6135 to fill the gap up opening of today. A gap up opening means 6180-6240 levels on the bullish side.
2) Trading range for tomorrow will be 6100-6135-6175-6240. Break of 6100 will mean intra day break down tomorrow. Longs only above 6180 or if support is found at 6120-6135 level on dips.
3) A chart of the index heavy weight Reliance is attached. Reliance monthly chart shows accumulation of the stock over a period of 6 months and the stock has been mainly traded between 950-1100 levels for a long time now. If Nifty has to make new highs, then Reliance is a stock to watch now amongst the index stocks apart from the already fired up banking, auto, and pharma stocks. Will Reliance breakout above 1095 levels towards 1200-1300 during this month with its excellent quarterly results.  Also, the power stocks look  good for up move along with telecom sector stocks like RCom and Bharti after having consolidated to take the index to newer highs.  For this the level of 6135 must be held over the next week consistently on closing basis.  Tomorrow is also the listing of Coal India IPO, which will set the trend for the fireworks on upside on muhurat trading the day after on weekend.  Happy Diwali! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - November 3, 2010

As expected a day of consolidation with a flat opening and Nifty managed to remain in the crucial 6090-6120 range throughout the day and has triggered the important level of 6135 today with a high of 6138. The EMA and SMA levels thus look stronger today than on the weekend.  VWAP @ close is 6151. Nifty closes above the pivot level @ 6119.

1) Views remain same as yesterday and the trading range for tomorrow should be 6120-6180 on bullish side with 6135-6150 as the resistances.
2) Gap down opening or break of 6085 (yesterday's low) can likely take Nifty down to 6050-6030 intra day.
3) Shorts are covering on dips and Nifty has traded flat today. As of now it is buy on dips up to 6085 levels and breakout will be above 6135-6140 of spot value.

Trade Plan - November 2, 2010

Nifty back in the upper band trading zone of 6060-6135 today after a huge gap up. VWAP @ close is 6145.  Nifty closes at 6117.55.

1) A flattish or gap up opening tomorrow means going long above 6135-6155 for target of 6190-6220. Stop loss in such a scenario will be 6100.
2) Gap down opening and break of 6100-6090 levels means Nifty will retrace to 6060-6045 levels and if these levels are sustained then crossing 6120 levels and 6135 will be hurdles again.  Today again 6135 has not been tested and this level needs to be taken out first.
3) Tomorrow could be a range bound day and the most likely range that will emerge to trade is 6045-6060-6125-6190-6250. The level of 6090-6100 will be crucial support this week and remaining above these levels makes the technical levels stronger over the next couple of days. With Diwali round the corner and good results of  the index heavy weight RIL and strength of Bank Nifty, up trend seems to be a strong possibility this week and the level of 6200 resistance will be taken out quite easily.