Trade Plan - December 30 & December 31, 2010

Nifty finally breaks above the 55-Day SMA level of 6025 today and trades above 6050 for most of the last hour of trading today. VWAP @ close is 6045. Nifty closes @ 6060 well above all EMAs and SMAs and looks bullish @ EOD today.

1) Tomorrow is the December series expiry and Nifty will be volatile below 6037 levels. As long as Nifty sustains above 6050 levels one can expect the December series closing above 6085-6120 to set up a bullish day for the last trading day of the year on Friday, December 31st. If Nifty closes above 6085 levels tomorrow, then December 31st could be a very good trading day for longs for a target of 6135-6180-6200.
2) Below 6037 levels, Nifty could be volatile and close around 5980-5950 too tomorrow in the December series. Strict stop loss for longs will be 6037. The intra day chart of today shows the one-way move of Nifty today.  If Nifty closes tomorrow below 5980, then the same levels of today could be expected the day after on the weekend.
3) With the year 2010 drawing to a close in another two sessions, a weekly chart captures the journey of Nifty from 5202 on January 1, 2010 onwards with some important levels to be kept in mind in the coming New Year. Will be back with intra day trade plans only next year from January 2, 2011. Till then, Cheers! Have a very safe and prosperous New Year! HAPPY 2011! Happy Trading!!!

Trade Plan - December 29, 2010

Nifty trades in a very narrow range around 5-DEMA/SMA levels and never broke out on either side of 6011 or the low of 5982. Volumes are very low and no major moves can be expected till expiry day primarily due to low volumes. VWAP @ close is 6013. Nifty closes flat once again above 5-DEMA/SMA level @ 5996.

1) View for tomorrow remain same as that for today, longs only above 6018 for targets of 6085-6120. Strict stop loss will be 6007 for intra day longs on spot values.
2) With just two sessions left for December series expiry and lack of volumes, trading in the next two days will be dull unless Nifty closes above 6085 on upside with volumes or below 5965 on the downside. Till then trading range likely to be 5940-5965-6018-6050. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 28, 2010

Nifty opens in green and fails to sustain above the important level of 6018 in the afternoon and finds support at 5990 level. VWAP @ close is 6033. Nifty closes flat @ 5998 near today's low and just above the 5-SMA level of 5995.  The 5-DEMA level is 5987.

1) Nifty needs to trade above 55-Day SMA levels of 6030 tomorrow for this momentum to continue for targets of 6085-6120 and the level of 6018 is a low-risk entry point for going long intra day. Tomorrow Nifty could take U-turn from 5965 levels once again with gap down opening.
2) Nifty is trading above all  EMAs/SMAs except 55-Day SMA which is 6030. Below 5965 Nifty will be bearish.
3) With volatility getting stabilized, there is not much scope to short  without a close below 5965 now. The level of 6007 will be strict stop loss/reversal level intra day for going long and initiating trade above 6018 only will be beneficial for intra day trading to catch the upside. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 27, 2010

The gap down opening gave an opportunity for going long for intra day traders today at 5965-5980 levels and Nifty made high of 6017 and closes the week in bullish mode @ 6012.  VWAP @ close is 6010.

1) Bullish range for Monday will be 6005-6020-6085-6120 levels if momentum picks up. Strict stop loss for longs will be 5985.
2) Bearish range will be below 5995-5965-5900. Strict stop loss for going short 6007.
3) With Quarter-3 results season beginning this month end, close of Nifty above 6200 this coming week will be a bullish sign. A close below 5965 will be bearish.
4) The weekly chart depicts the levels to be looked for this coming week if Nifty holds 5965 levels.  Happy X-Mas! Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 24, 2010

Range bound session without volatility and Nifty trades between today's morning high and yesterday's low  without any clear direction. VWAP @ close is 5996. Nifty closes @ 5980.

1) Tomorrow is an important session and weekend close above 6085 would be bullish. Short term support of 5965 has held well over the past three trading sessions.
2) Gap up opening scenario is possible tomorrow and Nifty could take off from the opening itself as 5965 has held well over the past 3 sessions.
3) Another possible scenario is Nifty has a flat weekend close tomorrow and next week only it will take direction after X-mas weekend based on global cues.
4) Trading below 5965 for more than an hour with a gap down opening will take Nifty towards next important support level of 5850.
5) Nifty is trading above all EMAs. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 23, 2010

Gap up opening and Nifty traded in bullish zone but failed to consolidate above 6018 level and after 2 pm fell to 5958 and remaining in a no-trade zone without direction through the last one hour and 5965 level has provided support today afternoon. VWAP @ close is 6013. Nifty closes @ 5984.

1) Nifty needs to trade above 6000 and consolidate above 6018 for moving up further for targets of 6050-6085-6135. Resistance of 6018-6030 levels need to be overcome. Volumes are low.
2) Trading below 5965 will set Nifty for a move down towards 5900-5850-5750 once again.
3) With closing of Nifty above all EMA levels and above 5965 level today, bias is still positive and the levels need to be watched carefully - 5965 & 6018.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 22, 2010

Another session of consolidation around 5990 level with ORB break out giving good intra day scalping trades throughout the day as Nifty swung in a narrow range of 5980-6007 till close. VWAP @ close is 6005. Nifty closes @ 6000.

1) Consolidation around 6018 level of spot value is the next step which should happen tomorrow if there is a gap up opening  and bullish range for tomorrow will be 6000-6020-6050-6085-6120. The level of 5965 will remain as strict stop loss for going long and break of 5980 will be the first sign of intra day weakness.
2)  A gap down opening, short can be initiated only if Nifty trades below 5965 for the first two hours or else 5965 will work as an entry point for going long tomorrow.
3) The chart shows intra day action of today and the important levels. One more day of consolidation and the chances of Nifty closing this week above 6135 looks bright subject to consolidation around 6018 levels with no major dip below 5990 level tomorrow.
4) The recovery of bank nifty today was the key to consolidation of Nifty above 5965 levels. Nifty is bullish above 5965 level and volatility seems to be under control now and overnight position with 5900PE for longs could be an effective hedge in the December series.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 21, 2010

A quiet start to the week after the long weekend and Nifty climbed steadily from the ORB break out above 5930 to consolidate around 5965 level and touched a high of 5985. After 3 pm Nifty cracked below 5965 levels and traded below it around 5945 levels.  VWAP @ close is 5955. Nifty closes flat @ 5947.

1) Nifty will be strong only above 5965 levels for targets of 6060-6085. Being long above 5990 for these targets is safe for longs. Strict stop loss of 5965. The level of 5965 extremely crucial now.
2) Short below 5940 for target of 5850-5800 is a possible scenario tomorrow if Nifty trades below 5965 in the morning session without volumes. The next four sessions should see a good break out above 6085 or fall to 5640 below 5965.
3) The intra day chart depicts today's action which was volatile below 5965 towards the close and mostly revolved above 5950 levels today.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 20, 2010

Nifty after trading below 5900 throughout the morning session was clearly without direction till 1 p.m. and negatively biased and was at the break down point of 5860. The RBI credit policy was the trigger and Nifty steadily recovered 100 points from the day's low and closes in the green. VWAP @ close is 5917. Nifty closes the weekend @ 5949.

1) A strong follow up session is required to maintain this momentum on Monday when market opens after the strong weekend close this week to confirm the support level of 5860 and close above 6085 levels.
2) If bullish momentum continues on Monday, then 5965 is the trigger to go long for target of 6020-6085-6120. Strict stop loss or reversal point will be 5930 for intra day trading.
3) Break below 5930, the lower supports that will again get tested will be at 5875-5850-5825.
4) The chart uploaded shows weekly chart of Nifty from May 25, 2010 till date. Nifty closes just above the crucial 55-DEMA level of 5943 after 145 sessions from the low of 4787 on May 25, 2010 in 30 weeks.   Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 16, 2010

Gap down opening and Nifty was in negative territory throughout the day and revolved around the 5-DEMA level of 5907. VWAP @ close is 5910. Nifty closes at 5892.

1) For tomorrow, 5907 again will be an important level for intra day trading. Above 5907 Nifty could test 5935-5965-5995. Strict stop loss/reversal level will be 5860.
2) Break of today's low will make Nifty bearish once again and will likely fall to 5800-5750-5700 levels.
3) Tomorrow is the last trading session of the week with Friday being a holiday. Expect Nifty to swing from the levels of 5907 on upside and break below 5860 on downside. Currently @ EOD, the bias is negative, but market can go any way.
4) Market is certainly waiting for RBI policy decision and the banking stocks will move accordingly.  With the oil price hike, inflation will be a concern and higher inflation concern is negative news. The effect of various scams is keeping the market in negative mode since last two weeks. The good news has to trickle from the QE-3 earnings of companies during the month end.  December series will lose steam if it fails to cross 5965 levels on closing basis and without volumes market will remain in a sideways and volatile range.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 15, 2010

Nifty takes support at 5888 levels and remains largely range bound throughout the day touching a high of 5954. VWAP @ close is 5942. Nifty closes @ 5944.

1) Gap up opening means bullish range tomorrow will be 5965-5985-6050-6085. A close above 6050 ensures that Nifty closes above all short-term and medium term  EMA/SMA levels and will be in buy mode.
2) Gap down opening means negative sentiment prevails still and then break of the level of 5907 will be pull back to 5880-5850-5820 levels. The level of 5907 is strict stop loss for going long and intra day reversal below 5907 only.
3) Nifty needs to remain above 5945 levels with this momentum continuing into tomorrow and then go above 5965-6000 levels.  The 34-SMA is 6018 and 55-SMA is 6048 and Nifty needs to close above these two levels and come back into the retracement channel above 5965 level.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 14, 2010

Nifty opens in the green, falls below the 5DEMA level to low of 5795 and recovers intra day to cross the opening high of 5887 to 5913 levels. VWAP @ close is 5870. Nifty closes @ 5907 near the day's high and is in buy mode now.

1) For tomorrow, Nifty needs to sustain above 5885-5900 level throughout the day and close above 5965-6050 levels if positive momentum continues whole of tomorrow. Longs strictly above 5880-5910 levels only. Strict stop loss will be 5860 for going long tomorrow.
2) Break of 5860 will again make Nifty look bearish and it may not recover like today from 5800 levels. No two trading days will be the same ever. In the event Nifty breaks 5860-5840 levels, then Nifty could fall below today's low and test 5720-5690 levels.
3) The volatility is high and swings either side of 5860 levels like today can be expected on downside too tomorrow. The chart depicts the swings of today's trade from the level of 5860. Trade safely and happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 13, 2010

After opening in the red and registering a new low of 5721 in the first 15 minutes of trade, the ORB breakout above 5765 was a good trade for longs intra day. Overcoming resistance around 5820 levels, Nifty went up further to touch a high of 5865. VWAP @ close is 5836. Nifty closes the week @ 5857.

1) Today's rally is primarily a short covering rally and technical levels need to be crossed for confirmation. For Monday, the bullish levels will be 5880-5965-6000 if fresh buying creeps in with volumes. A close above 5965 is minimum requirement for some bullish sentiments to return to the market. Strict stop loss for going long is 5820.
2) Break below 5820, means Nifty is heading towards 5630-5500-5400 levels.
3) The market sentiment is extremely cautious which is reflected by the increase in the annualized volatility and there could be wild swings either side of 5860/5820 levels. Trade safely. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 10, 2010

Nifty breaks support levels of 5860 levels and touches a low of 5742.  VWAP @ close is 5848.  Nifty closes @ 5766.

1) It is short on rise up to 5875 levels only with reversal only above yesterday's break down level of 5965 on a closing basis. Tomorrow being the weekend, a short covering rally can be expected and could take up this market by 50 odd points from 5820-5870-5900 levels tomorrow.
2) The market sentiment has turned bearish with more and more negative news and at the moment the technical levels have taken a beating.  Shorting at these levels of below 5750 is also risky proposition and it is better to play the ORB breakout for intra day trading and going with the trend.  The market is now driven by negative sentiments and it will take a few sessions for the negatives to be factored in and the sentiments to subside.
3) Over a few sessions or next week, market should cool off and find a steady bottom around 5630-5555-5400 level if it tanks any further from today's low of 5742 or else it should retrace back and close above 5965 levels.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 9, 2010

Nifty opened below 5960 and it was straight away shorting opportunity for today's trading session and touched a low of 5879. VWAP @ close is 5930. Nifty closes @ 5904 below all the short-term DEMA levels.

1) For tomorrow if Nifty recovers with gap up opening and sustains above 5940, then 5966 is the trigger level to make a long entry and go ahead from there for targets of 5995-6020 intra day. Stop loss for going long is 5940. The Bank Nifty has corrected quite a bit and needs to recover for Nifty to sustain above 5966 levels.
2) Failure to cross 5966 and remaining below this level becomes a shorting opportunity on rise to 5950 levels with strict stop loss of 5986.
3) Break of today's low of 5879 should take Nifty to 5835-5790 levels. Overall scenario is bearish now and the level of 5860 (89-DEMA) needs to be held in the remaining two days of the week and close above 5966 on Friday. Nifty could also take U-turn from the level of 5860 and this level needs to be watched on the downside.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 8, 2010

Nifty has traded in the lower band below 6000 levels throughout the day and revolved around 5965 levels with an intra day dip to 5939 and recovering to 5990 and then being mostly around 5966 level. VWAP @ close is 5992. Nifty closes flat once again @ 5977 and a good consolidation has happened around the levels of 5960-6010 over the past 5 trading sessions.

1) The level to watch tomorrow is 5986. Trading above 5986 without breaking this level could likely take Nifty to 6050 level with short covering itself. Fresh buying will come into play only above 6085 levels. Till then this range bound scenario between 5965-6065 will likely continue.  The bullish zone will be 6000-6050-6085-6135. Level of 5984 will be a good stop loss for intra day longs. Higher volumes will come in only above 6085 levels.
2)If the negative bias continues below 5960 (55-DEMA level), then Nifty could go below today's low of 5939 to test 5900-5880-5840 levels.
3) There have been five consecutive closings above 5960 levels  with significant resistance around 6020-6050 levels and now any close below this level will truncate the retracement towards 6300+ levels. The annualized volatilty is getting lower and what can be assumed from a trading perspective is that a higher bottom will be in place sooner. Whether today's bottom of 5939 levels hold good in the short term will only be confirmed if we close above 6085 levels on a weekly basis without breaking today's low.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 7, 2010

Gap up opening and Nifty takes off from the low of 6023 to touch a high of 6069 and later significant resistance around 6050 levels drags it down to fill the gap up of Friday's close. VWAP @ close is 6048. Nifty closes flat @ 5992 and is consolidating around the levels of the 34-DEMA. The 5-DEMA level is 5964 now, which is an important level. Resistance around 6050 levels needs to be crossed now.

1) For tomorrow, gap up opening and remaining above 6018 levels would be a repeat of today's session and longs above 6025 for targets of 6085-6120. Strict stop loss/reversal below 6013 levels.
2) Gap down opening could break the support of 5960 and Nifty could test 5935-5900 levels. The level of 6013 will be reversal point for shorting if gap down opening happens.
3) Levels to watch tomorrow is the support at 5966 and the resistance at 6085 levels. Nifty needs to close above 6085-6135 levels to maintain upward momentum. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 6, 2010

Two days of consolidation around the 5995 (34-DEMA) level and the trading range between 5995-6023 initially and in between as expected had a dip towards the all important support level of 5965 level and recovering from there to touch 6018 levels. Nifty remains in the retracement mode after the drastic fall in November series below 6085 levels. VWAP @ close is 6009. Nifty closes @ 5993 just below 34-DEMA and is currently in sell on rise mode.

1) The level of 5952 can be considered as the final support of this retracement on the upside. Nifty has traded above the 55-DEMA level and facing resistance around the 34-DEMA level of 5995 and intra day sessions have been quite choppy, but the volatility has given some good points intra day above 5995 and on break of 5985 levels and from 5965 upwards back up.
2) For Monday the bullish zone will be 5965-6040-6100 with a strict stop loss of 5948 just below the level of 5952. Crossing 6018-6030 zone will be the challenge for traders taking long trades.
3) Failure to close above 5966 levels on Monday could likely take Nifty down to 5885-5770 levels. Strict stop loss for going short will be 6030 on closing basis.
 4) The two-day chart shows the price channel to be between 5965 and 6013 @ close. This zone will be a good trading opportunity on Monday too with minimal risk for longs with a s/l of 5958 and for shorts with s/l of 6025.
5) The second chart shows the channel in which Nifty must trade to retrace back to 6300+ levels in the December series.  Happy weekend!  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 3, 2010

As expected a gap up opening and Nifty failed to breakout on either side of the first hour's trading range of 6029-5980 and mostly revolved around the 5995 level which is the 34-DEMA level. VWAP @ close is 6015. Nifty closes @ 6012.

1) It was a hotly contested trading session today between levels of 5990-6018 today. The fact that Nifty closed above all short term EMAs makes it look bullish. However, not able to break past 6018-6030 level where huge resistance is seen. A drop to 5960 is very much likely tomorrow.  For tomorrow the level of  5985 will be the break down point. Bullish range for tomorrow will be 6000-6039-6085-6105.
2) Break of 5990-5985 levels will take Nifty down to test 5960 levels and failure to hold 5960 levels could cause Nifty to slide back to the 5900-5880 levels.  Levels to watch out tomorrow 6018 and 5885.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - December 2, 2010

A trend reversal day for Nifty today and crossed the 55-DEMA level of 5950 and traded firmly above that level in the afternoon. VWAP @ close is 5946 up from the VWAP of 5845 levels of yesterday. Nifty closes @ 5961 just below the important level of 5966.

1) Now gap up openings can be expected once again and Nifty must now overcome the 34-DEMA level of 5995 tomorrow. Bullish range will be 5935-5995-6020-6085.
2) Break of 5915 levels will take Nifty down to 5885-5820 levels.
3) Overall sentiment is getting bullish and a close above 6085 will confirm the bullish sentiments. So, longs only above 5935 for intra day with strict stop loss of 5915. Happy trading!