Trade Plan - February 22, 2011

Nifty tests the 5-day LEMA level of 5413 and takes U-turn to once again go above 5-DEMA level and close firmly above 5500 levels today @ 5519. VWAP @ close is 5468.

1) This being February series expiry week, volatility will be high and lot of indecision in trader's mind with breach of 5-DEMA level twice in two days either side of this level. The bullish range for tomorrow is 5525 to 5555-5600 (Friday high).
2) Below 5525 level, Nifty will test 5420 levels once again and break of 5420 can lead to a more drastic fall to 5350 levels.
3) Trading will be largely range bound and highly volatile with rumours and lot of uncertain speculative news running up until budget. The market is clearly waiting for some more information regarding government's actions on JPC in various scams, probable budget impact, how inflation is addressed, etc. etc. One thing is certain, the Union budget will definitely provide a high dose of populist measures to soothen public perception of the government, but there will be hardly any deterrent action plan to tackle the single most problem the nation is facing - corruption. The PM himself admits that he can do little about the corrupt team he is leading and the constraints put on him by coalition politics/partners.  So, the "aam aadmi" can only listen to the honest leader and take all that is happening in his/her stride and wait for the next election to find a lesser corrupt formation?
4) I will be taking a break from trading for the next fortnight and will be back on March 8th only with the daily trade plans. Till then, happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 21, 2011

Profit booking around 5565+ levels on weekend leads to the Nifty falling below the crucial support of 5-DEMA level of 5467. VWAP @ close is 5517 indicating the intra day break down was below 5515 level. Nifty closes below the 5-DEMA level @ 5459.

1) Having breached the 5-DEMA level intra day, Nifty direction looks negative for the coming week starting Monday. Reversal for short positions triggered today will now be above 5515 levels.
2) Down side targets will be 5400-5340 if Nifty falls below 5450 levels on Monday.
3) Bullishness will return only above 5520 levels with a gap up opening. Avoiding intra day trade on Monday looks the best option as the close on this weekend is with a neutral bias. Happy weekend!  Happy trading!   

Trade Plan - February 18, 2011

Nifty steadily climbing up towards 5555 levels today intra day once support @ 5465 level held and later traded above 5500. VWAP @ close is 5514. Nifty closes at 5546.

1) Tomorrow is the weekend and Nifty trading above 5515 levels should make it attempt go higher towards 5630 levels (200-DEMA level). So, bullish range will be 5515-5575-5630+ levels.
2) Below 5515, Nifty could fall to 5460-5400 levels. The 5-DEMA level has risen to 5467 level and this level is the trailing stop loss for positional longs now. Some profit booking by positional longs can be expected tomorrow on the week end and a close above 5580/5600 would be bullish for the next week.
3) The market seems to be gearing up for the budget with a close around or above the 200-DEMA levels and the range till then could be 5400-5650 levels. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 17, 2011

A day of consolidation with a limited trading range between 5460-5505 levels today. VWAP @ close is 5484. Nifty closes flat @ 5482 and intra day opportunities were limited to scalping trades between 5475-5500 only today.

1) For intra day tomorrow, Nifty needs to trade above 5500 consistently for target of 5555-5585 with strict stop loss of 5475. This scenario is possible only with a gap up opening around 5510-5520 levels. 

2) Below 5480, Nifty can fall to 5430-5390. The 5-DEMA level at EOD today has risen to 5427.

3) The weekend close this Friday above 5560-5600 will be good for further upside. Any close below 5465 will be bearish. The last three days closing levels have been above 5450 which is encouraging, but then cannot remain at these levels for too long, needs to go higher (above 5555) or lower (5390). The level of 5465 is holding as of now.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 16, 2011

A quiet opening and after consolidating at 5430 level, Nifty tests high of 5507 and finally closes at 5481 level. VWAP @ close is 5456.

1) Bullish range for tomorrow is 5485-5565 levels with strict stop loss of 5465.
2) Below 5465, Nifty will be bearish intra day for targets of 5390-5350. The 5-DEMA level at close today is 5398.
3) Tomorrow's session is very crucial and a good move and close above 5620 will put Nifty on a highly bullish mode once again. Today's close @ 5481 is a nice steady beginning towards further up move.  Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - February 15, 2011

The momentum of the Friday close at 5-DEMA level carried on today and Nifty never looked back upon opening today and Nifty crossed the all important level of 5460 towards close of day . VWAP @ close is 5411. Nifty closes at 5455.

1) Nifty sustaining above 5465 only will be strong intra day for targets 5555-5665 levels. Trailing stop loss for longs is 5430.
2) Fall below 5430 will be bearish intra day for target of 5390-5350. The 5-DEMA level at close today is 5360. Next important level on upside are 5510 and 5612 levels (21-DEMA/34DEMA)
3) A close above 5555 would make Nifty short term bullish this week.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 14, 2011

Nifty recovers from the low of 5178 mainly due to short covering rally and gains strength above 5240 levels to test the 5-DEMA/5-DSMA level of 5309/5292 and closes above the 5-DEMA level. VWAP @ close is 5244 which is same as that of yesterday.

1) Now, sustaining above 5-DEMA/5-DSMA levels on closing basis is important and crossing 5360-5375 on closing basis makes Nifty short term bullish. Levels for Monday is 5275-5325-5375-5400.
2) Below 5275. the crash will be fast and furious to below 5150 levels. The IIP numbers were not encouraging but in spite of this, short covering rally took Nifty up on this weekend after nearly 5-7 sessions of downtrend. Sustaining and closing above 5375-5400 in the next session is important now for further upside.
3) The intra day chart shows the V-shaped recovery of Nifty from 5180 levels today. Happy weekend! Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - February 11, 2011

The slide continues and Nifty slides below 5200 today to test 5195 levels briefly on spot values and makes recovery up to 5265 levels on short covering rally and fails to sustain or close above 5265 levels. VWAP @ close is 5243. Nifty closes at 5226.

1) Trailing stop loss for positional short position for tomorrow is 5285. A reversal above 5285 with close above 5375 would be the first requirement to signal change in bias now over the next two sessions. If tomorrow the weekend closing is above 5375, it would be positive for Monday.
2) Below 5225 levels, Nifty can fall up to 5145 levels intra day tomorrow and then take U turn up to 5240 levels. A closing below 5250 will be bearish for target of 5000 levels next week.
3) The bias continues to remain negative and will change to positive bias only with a close above 5465 levels in the following week. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 10, 2011

Nifty falling as expected and no support is held for more than an hour intra day. After recovering from the gap down opening and support at 5255 levels Nifty tanked below 5320 levels once again to test 5225 levels. VWAP @ close is 5295. Nifty closes at 5254.

1) Trailing stop loss intra day for positional short position will now come down to 5325 tomorrow. Intra day reversal levels should be around 5210 levels with a gap down opening tomorrow as short covering rallies intra day have taken place today between 5255-5320 and later from 5230-5280 towards EOD today and the zone of 5220-5260 some support is seen.
2) The next critical support levels will be 5165-5090 levels on downside.
3) More panic on cards if 5160 levels are broken. The chart shows levels Nifty could fall if 5100 levels are broken. If Nifty does not recover above 5560 levels within the next two weeks taking support either above 5200 or 5165 levels, then levels below 5000 will be certainly seen.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 9, 2011

The expected slide continues for Nifty and now below all support levels decisively with increased volumes. Clearly fresh short positions have been built today in the market right from the opening bell.  VWAP @ close is 5355. Nifty closes at 5312.

1) Not much to write about and Nifty expectedly tanking and closing below 5400 level for the third consecutive session and clearly staring down the barrel.
2) Below 5310, next levels of support will be 5210 and 5240 levels.
3) It will take a while before some confidence is restored and market participants come with positive bent of mind to trade. Reversal levels for intra day tomorrow will be 5240 where a short covering rally can be expected. Trailing stop loss for positional shorts for tomorrow is 5440. It is also time to take a break from the market now and wait for some stabilization.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 8, 2011

Range bound Monday session with Nifty holding the level of 5375 level but failing to go above 5465 levels. VWAP @ close is 5407. Nifty closes @ 5406.

1) Bias continues to be negative with intra day reversal level for tomorrow being 5465 with close above 5525 levels.
2) Fall below 5345, bring in 5280 level into play.
3) The market likely to be range bound till the Union budget is announced this month. It will be make or break after the Union Budget. A tough budget certainly means lower circuit of the index as India Inc is fed up of the corruption running across the breadth and length of the country in all spheres of governance and with political points being scored in media rather than in the parliament by a bunch of scamster politicians. The PM who is the father of economic reforms in India is unable to reform the ministers he has to work with as honesty and meritocracy has been put on the backburner and nepotism and corruption have gained precedence.  The image of the government has certainly hit the lower circuit with the economic scams and market has voiced its concern in the most emphatic manner.  The only trigger for the lower circuit required is for a massive FII sell off. Avoid trades on long side if not already positionally short. Trailing stop loss for positional short positions is 5515 as of now on closing basis. Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - February 7, 2011

Nifty closes the week on a negative note once again after touching a new high of the week today when it touched 5556 level but intra day cracking below 5-DEMA level of 5506 level took Nifty to new lows of the week as well as new low in over 6 months of 5369.  VWAP @ close is 5467. Nifty closes near the lows of the day @ 5396.

1) Highly range bound week and the support of 5400 broken today on weekend. Lower levels of support of Nifty will be 5345-5310-5275 levels.
2) Next week might be another week of consolidation around 5300-5350 levels on downside.  The chart captures the action of the past 5 days on the 90-minute chart and all trades either side of 5465 have been profitable. Nifty is bearish with newer lows consecutively over the past five weeks. Happy weekend! Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - February 4, 2011

After 4 sessions of testing lows between 5402-5420, Nifty today took off to cross 5500-5520-5530 towards EOD after spending considerable time in the afternoon session above 5-DEMA level. VWAP @ close is 5506. Nifty closes at 5527. The 5-DEMA level @ EOD today is 5506.

1) Sustaining above 5500 levels tomorrow, sets Nifty up for a target of 5565-5620-5700 over the next two to three trading sessions.. Strict stop loss or reversal level will be 5490. Nifty has closed above 5-DEMA/5-DSMA today.
2) Below 5495, Nifty will once again become bearish for targets of 5400-5300.
3) The week's range has been between 5402-5539 levels, and with today's close above 5525, it is most likely to break out on the higher side above 5565-5600 level tomorrow once hurdle of 5565 is crossed decisively with volumes. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 3, 2011

Nifty still in negative mode after gap up opening but failing to surpass 5490 levels and testing lows towards end of day and closes on a flat note. VWAP @ close is 5472.  Nifty closes at 5432.

1) Below 5480, Nifty is bearish for target of 5380-5350-5310 levels.
2) Strength only above 5480 with volumes should take to 5530-5590-5620.
3) It appears a one way move up or down possible this weekend with a weekly close above 5590 or below 5310 on Friday. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 2, 2011

Nifty continues to test newer lows and just on the fringe of breaking 5400 levels with low of 5402 after failing to sustain above 5495 after the first hour of trade.  VWAP @ close is 5456. Nifty closes at 5417.

1) Failure to sustain above 5400 should take Nifty to 5380-5345, which is where it is headed towards to now @ EOD today.
2) In the event of a gap up opening above 5450, then Nifty will become bullish above 5480 only.
3) Levels to watch tomorrow, 5345 on downside and 5480 on upside. Happy trading!