Trade Plan - April 1, 2011

Nifty trades above 5800 in the morning session and touches high of 5872 before crashing to test support level of 5775 and recovering in the last hour of trade to close above another important level of 5825. VWAP @ close is 5862 and Nifty closes at 5834.

1) Nifty is still bullish after 7 straight days of gains and the next target on upside is 5925-5965. Reversal level will be 5825 tomorrow.
2) Below 5825, levels to be watched for support are 5770-5735-5680.
3) The 5-EMA has risen to 5734 at close today. Amongst index stocks, Reliance is looking bullish with a close above 1050. The index is obviously getting geared for the yearly results and price is following the expectations.  Another stock to watch this month is Reliance Capital for target of 650+ along with telecom stocks Bharti and RCom.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 31, 2011

Nifty continues its uptrend with a quiet day and consolidation around 5770 levels after the gap up opening. VWAP @ close is 5796. Nifty closes at 5788.

1) Up trend will continue if Nifty able to sustain above 5800 levels for target of 5850-5900. The level of 5768 will be reversal level.
2) Below 5768, Nifty should test 5700-5685 levels.
3) Tomorrow is expiry of March series and a positive closing can be expected above 5770 levels with some intra day volatility.
4) The 5-DEMA has risen to 5684 @ EOD today. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 30,. 2011

The uptrend of Nifty continued today above the level of 5680 to touch a high of 5770 and closes @ 5736. VWAP @ close is 5750.

1) After the continuous rise over the past 5 sessions, a consolidation phase can be expected and Nifty should trade range bound between 5735-5800 now if the bullish momentum shows continuity.
2) Break of 5735, brings into play the level of 5680-5630.
3) The 5-DEMA level at close today is 5633. It is certainly a buy on dips market around 5650 levels for a target of 5825-5925 positionally for the April series. There are just two trading sessions left for the March series to expire and these sessions will be highly volatile.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan -March 29, 2011

A flat opening to the week but Nifty gains momentum to test a high of 5709 and closes at  the 200-SMA level of 5687. VWAP @ close is 5697.

1) Nifty is trading above all EMAs and now needs to close above the 200-SMA level of 5685 for a few days for this upward momentum to continue. The level to watch will be 5680 and above only with a close above 5750 levels.
2) Below 5680, not much downside can be expected and corrections should be up to 5580 levels.
3) The 5-EMA at EOD today is 5581. Happy trading! 

March 28, 2011

A day of trend change with Nifty opening with gap up and once it traded above the 200-DEMA level of 5583, higher buying volumes of heavy weight banking stocks along with Infy made the index rise and close near the highs of the day. VWAP at close is 5629. Nifty closes @ 5654.25.

1) Nifty has closed above all long term EMAs and is bullish for the immediate short term with the market gearing up for the expected yearly results of companies. It is buy on dips now.
2) For intra day 5580 level will be the reversal level now. As long as Nifty trades above the longer term EMA, there will be buying. Some consolidation can be expected in the first two days of the next week and the expiry of the Nifty for March series should be above 5650-5750 levels.
3) The 5-EMA level has risen to 5528 at close today. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 25, 2011

A day of consolidation at 5500+ levels today and with marginal increase in volumes today, trading remained range bound between 5500-5528 levels.  VWAP @ close is 5532. Nifty closes at 5522.

1) Gap up opening and sustaining above 5520 should take Nifty above 5565 levels where some resistance could be seen on the weekend tomorrow being the penultimate week to expiry. If the longs are strong and add more volumes, then a good rally can take beyond 5600 levels.
2) Gap down opening will offer buying opportunity only if level of 5500 is not broken.
3) The bias is up. The 5-EMA level is now risen to 5465 and going short should be only below 5465. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 24, 2011

A good opening just below 5-EMA but sustained buying in early morning trades helps Nifty to remain above 5-EMA level and close @ 5480. VWAP @ close is 5478.

1) A steady trading day without hiccups above 5-EMA/5-SMA levels to get back into the zone of 5465-5480.
2) Tomorrow, this positive momentum will continue only if Nifty moves to trade above 5500 on spot prices and with more buying should cross 5565-5620 in a few sessions. Stop loss or reversal level will be 5465 for intra day players.
3) Below, 5465, the levels of 5400-5365 will again be tested for buying support.
4) The 5-EMA level at close is 5437 and Nifty has closed well above this level today. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 23, 2011

Another range bound day with positive bias and trading above 5400 on spot levels for most of afternoon session but failing to conclusively cross 5-EMA level of 5417. However, Nifty closes just below 5-EMA level after a small rally towards end of the day  from 5404 to 5418 levels. VWAP @ close is 5425. Nifty closes @ 5414 just below the 5-EMA level of 5416.

1) Tomorrow, Nifty should sustain above 5425 levels with a close above 5480 for momentum of positive nature.
2) Volumes are too low and hence most of the momentum fizzles out when intra day players book out either side of the 5-EMA with small scalping trades.
3) Below 5400, the targets can be 5330-5280. The global cues are stabilizing now.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 22, 2011

A range bound session with positive and negative bias throughout the day. VWAP @ close is 5395. Nifty closes flat @ 5365.

1) The support of 5365 is very crucial now and with negative global cues, break of this level should bring in more short selling into the system and with it volatility.
2) Level to watch tomorrow is 5415+ on spot prices for upside. Stop loss will be 5385.
3) Below 5365, Nifty could tank to 5280-5230 levels. Today, Nifty has closed @ 5365 levels just at the break down levels. Tomorrow's session could be highly volatile with market makers trying to defend the level of 5365 from the claws of the short sellers. The global cues must be good enough for the market makers to step in and buy into this market.  The 5-EMA @ close is 5417 and the 5-SMA is 5429. Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - March 21, 2011

Nifty breaks 5-EMA level and followed by negative news about index heavy weight RIL,  Nifty cracked below 5400 and closes @ support level of 5373.  VWAP @ close is 5416.

1) For Monday, the bias is negative and Nifty below 5365 should find support at 5300 or 5230 level over the next couple of trading sessions.
2) Bullish sentiment should return only if Nifty manages to close above the 5-EMA/5-SMA level of 5443/5463. Happy weekend. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 18, 2011

Another range bound day on either side of the 5-EMA level of 5492 with a negative bias after gap down opening. VWAP @ close is 5487 and Nifty closes at 5446.65

1) Views remain same, range bound trading between 5480-5520-5530 levels for going long.
2) Below 5480 levels of 5450-5430 is tested and Nifty bounces back to 5465-5475 levels.
3) The 5-EMA @ close has come down to 5477. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 17, 2011

Nifty opens gap up above 5-EMA level and remains throughout morning session to remain above this level to touch a high of 5535 on spot prices. VWAP @ close is 5524. Nifty closes at 5511.

1) Volumes are not encouraging enough for bigger moves and hence Nifty stuck in a range either side of the 5-EMA levels without clear cut direction with weak global cues.
2) Broadly, the bullish range is 5480-5560 levels. Nifty needs to close above 5600 levels for further up side.
3) Below 5465, Nifty is bearish for 5400-5365. The 5-EMA level at close today is now up to 5492.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 16, 2011

Gap down opening on weak global cues and Nifty recovers from day's low of 5373 to close at 5450 after touching high of 5498 (below 5-EMA of 5499). VWAP @ close is 5441. Nifty closes at 5450.

1) Nifty has done well despite the weak global cues to hang on to the 5465-5480 levels. Today RIL supported the index to remain in this crucial range of 5465 and above, which is the level to watch tomorrow.
2) The bias is negative now with close below 5-EMA levels and the next levels down side will be 5365-5280 levels.
3) The 5-EMA at close today has now fallen to 5482 once again.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 15, 2011

Nifty trades range bound for most part of morning session and takes off above the 5-EMA level of 5482 to make a high of 5537 on spot prices. VWAP @ close is 5511. Nifty closes at 5531.

1) Nifty has closed above 5-EMA on the opening day of this week and technically looks good for a good up move though global cues were weak. This up move could be due to short covering. Level to watch tomorrow is Nifty remaining above 5525 levels for a move towards 5565-5600.
2) Below 5525 (The 5-day High EMA level), Nifty if breaches 5-DEMA level of 5500 can fall fast to 5400 levels.
3) The 5-DEMA level at close is 5500. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 14, 2011

Nifty trades below 5-EMA level for second consecutive day and below 5465 levels finds support around 5410 level and closes lower today with negative global cues.VWAP @ close is 5458. Nifty closes at 5445.

1) Bias has gone negative with Nifty trading below 5-EMA level for second consecutive day. Below 5400, next support level will be 5365-5320 levels. Global cues are negative.
2) Market sentiment will remain cautious to guarded on Monday and a firm close above 5520 only will confirm a positive outlook. The intra day reversal level will be above 5485 on Monday.
3) The 5-EMA level at close today is 5482. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 11, 2011

A range bound trading day and Nifty trades below 5-EMA level throughout the day and clinging onto the 5465-5480 support levels. VWAP @ close is 5492. Nifty closes at 5494. Global cues were negative today.

1) Nifty has closed just below 5-EMA level and will gain strength if it decisively moves past 5520-5530 levels for further upside. A gap up opening above 5520 is the ideal scenario for bullish view to hold.
2) Break of 5465-5455 should trigger a collapse on the week end tomorrow towards 5400-5370 levels.
3) The 5-EMA level at close today is 5500. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 10, 2011

Gap up opening without much upside above 5555 levels and some consolidation around 5520 levels. VWAP @ close is 5528. Nifty closes at 5531.

1) Nifty has closed above 5-DEMA for second consecutive day and tomorrow either side it could move above or below 5500-5520 levels. A gap up opening above 5555 could like take Nifty above 5600.
2) Gap down opening below 5500, could once again make Nifty test lower levels of 5400.
3) The 5-DEMA/5-SMA is 5503/5518.  The volatility has been under control over the past two sessions. Increase in volumes will take it either way. As of now, stability seems to be there for the short term as long as Nifty trades above 5480-5500 zone. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 9, 2011

Nifty trades above 5465 level throughout the day and remains above 5500 amidst reports of some more time being taken by the two ruling party allies to part ways.  VWAP at close is 5521. Nifty closes above the 5-EMA/SMA level today @5521.

1) Level to watch tomorrow will be 5490 and above. Nifty trading above 5490 could likely take index to 5560-5600 levels. A gap up opening above 5550 is likely tomorrow.
2) Below 5490, Nifty can slide back to 5420-5370 levels due to the high volatility seen in the market now due to negative news flow.
3) The 5-DEMA at close today is 5490. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 8, 2011

Nifty has dilly dallied between 5600 and 5230 in the past 7 trading sessions and precariously hovering around the important 5480 levels with the political uncertainty not getting over with the likely withdrawal of support by ruling party's most corrupt ally. The positive effect of the post budget revival and  JPC on the telecom scam has fizzled out and the threat of a lower circuit comes to haunt the index once again and it will be highly volatile sessions ahead with the government trying to salvage whatever prestige is left after the supreme court ruling on the CVC, bitter tussle with the ally, etc. etc.

There is turmoil and public outrage all around against corrupt and inefficient governments. Fortunately we have democratic institutions that are still functioning.  It is high time our democratically elected members/parties understand that democracy gives the right to do only good for the people or else it is curtains and good governance has become a major issue. It is not the fundamentals that is wrong, it is the corrupt fundamentals of those ruling that is a major issue and has certainly caught the attention of the law-abiding citizen like never before. The market is hanging precariously around important support levels. It cannot go on like this for too long. If government falls a lower circuit is imminent towards 5000-4700 levels. If government survives then Nifty should sustain above 5555 for a very slow recovery towards 5900-6000 levels. The government will do well to seek a fresh mandate rather than buying out support from newer allies with compromises to hang on to power.  With the uncertain political scenario, avoid trading if not already short below 5555 on closing basis.  Happy and safe trading!