RIL - The Leader is Becoming the index Bleeder?

With so much of negative sentiments in the market, time to look at how the heavy weight RIL is doing. Below 850, this stock seems to be headed towards 725. It needs to be trading above 945 for feeling comfortable to trade it.

Trade Plan - August 1, 2011

Negative sentiments prevail in the market and Nifty closes the month of July below 5500 level. VWAP at close is 5493. Nifty closes flat at 5482.

1) Nifty continues to remain weak below 5555 levels on spot prices and this level remains the reversal level for Nifty for the month of August.
2) Below 5495 and end of earnings season with not so good results of heavy weights, Nifty likely to be in for some deeper falls through August series. The levels to look for in August series on downside is 5395-5265-5110.
3) Nifty has closed this month below the 20 month moving average of around 5491 and this is first indication of deep fall and it is short on rise mode for a trader with 5555 as the strict stop loss or reversal level. How Nifty begins August will be important on Monday above or below 5555 or below 5495. It is  wait and watch till Monday.  Happy weekend! Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 29, 2011

Gap down opening below 5500 levels and the negative sentiments and the subsequent weakness in the index lingers to close the July series of Nifty at 5488. VWAP @ close is 5494.

1) Nifty looks bearish now to test 5450-5395 levels below 5555 on closing basis.
2) Reversal level for tomorrow will be 5530 and above only on spot prices with close above 5555 levels.
3) Above 5530, Nifty can test 5555-5585. The QE results of ICICI Bank tomorrow could be a trigger for fall or rise depending on this bank's performance in the first quarter. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 28, 2011

Nifty trades range bound with negative bias in continuation to the negative sentiments to close at 5547. VWAP at close is 5549.

1) Reversal will be above 5585 only.
2) Below 5555, the important support levels are 5480-5400.
3) The level of 5555 could be strongly defended by market makers tomorrow on July series expiry. Bias is flat/range bound between 5555-5620 for tomorrow. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - July 27, 2011

Negative sentiments after RBI policy announcement tanks the Nifty in a jiffy below 5675 to 5560 levels. VWAP @ close is 5615. Nifty closes at 5575.

1) Nifty back in negative mode once again and trading just above the crucial 5555 levels. Reversal will be above 5595 levels on spot prices for targets of 5620-5650.
2) Below 5555, next support levels are 5500 and 5450.
3) The 5-EMA level at close today is 5606. Nifty closes below all short term EMAs today. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 26, 2011

Nifty continues to march ahead on break of 5650 spot levels and touches high of 5700 on spot price. The level of 5665 is VWAP @ close. Nifty is trading above all short-term and long term EMAs. Nifty closes @5680.

1) Bullish zone for tomorrow will be 5705 and above only for target of 5730-5770.
2) Below 5650 will be reversal level now and below this level 5600-5500 can be seen.
3) With three more sessions to go for expiry of July series and results of two index heavy weights RIL and ICICI Bank lined up along with RBI policy announcement tomorrow, volatility swings will be there on either side of 5705 levels on spot prices. The market looks positive about the events lined up beginning within the next few hours.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 25, 2011

Gap up opening above the 5-EMA level of 5570 and above 5580, Nifty remained above 5620 level most of the day to close at 5634. VWAP @ close is 5623.

1) Bullish levels for Monday, 5650-5685-5730. Reversal below 5620 only.
2) Below 5620, levels of 5580-5555 will get tested. Happy weekend! Happy trading :) 

Trade Plan - July 22, 2011

The negative bias continues for Nifty in a range bound session. VWAP @ close is 5555. Nifty closes at 5542.

1) Nifty is below all short term EMAs and once again is ready to fall to previous known supports of 5490-5450.
2) Reversal will be above 5580 levels only tomorrow.
3) The 5-EMA level at close today is 5570 and Nifty has closed well below this level. Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - July 21, 2011

Nifty does exact reverse of yesterday's trade and the entire range of 5555-5650 of this week got traded today in reverse direction as seen in the chart. VWAP @ close is 5601. Nifty closes at 5567.

1) The high end support at 5595 and lower end support of 5555 has been the trading range for past 5 consecutive days. The range extension of these two levels should happen over this weekend given the time spent by the index at these levels now and also having attempted to cross on the higher side now once again.
2) Reversal level remains 5595 and  below 5555, we could see 5490-5430.
3) Above 5595, 5620-5665 remains the levels to be traded.  Happy trading!
 

Trade Plan - July 20, 2011

Nifty trades in the entire range of past few days and closes above 5600 level today. VWAP @ close is 5608. Nifty closes at 5614.

1) Bullish range for tomorrow is  5625-5665-5735.
2) Below 5595, Nifty could  fall to 5555-5500.
3) Nifty will make an attempt once again to close above 200-SMA level once again, which is a level to be keenly watched now. This scenario could pan out with gap up opening and short covering rally to close above 5735-5765 levels. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - July 19, 2011

Flat range bound trade today between 5550-5596 levels on spot prices with negative bias to close at 5567. VWAP @ close is 5583.

1) Levels to watch tomorrow is 5600 and above for target of 5620-5665.
2) Below 5555, Nifty will be bearish for target of 5490-5450.
3) It has been three sessions since Nifty is trading in this same range and the concern for traders is with the volumes being low, direction of market looks unclear as the closing is at neutral levels.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - July 18, 2011

Nifty traded within yesterday's levels with negative bias but holding the crucial support of 5555. VWAP @ close is 5591. Nifty closes at 5581.

1) The bias remains sideways till the conclusive close above 5665 on weekly basis does not happen.
2) Below 5555, the monthly and weekly strong support zone, Nifty will be weak to fall towards 5450-5420.
3) A review of the mostly weighted individual stock in the index points out clearly that RIL, is trading closer to its 52-week lows and without this stock gaining momentum above 945 levels, Nifty will remain range bound. The earnings result of QE-1 of RIL will have a bearing on the index changing its direction above or below 5555 levels. Happy weekend! Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 15, 2011

A highly volatile session of trade with Nifty keeping afloat above 5555 levels to test 5650 levels and falls dramatically to below 5600 level.  VWAP @ close is 5604. Nifty closes at 5600.

1) Nifty has closed above the 5-EMA level today, but volatility has been high at higher levels and indecision persists with the quarterly earnings and inflation data and industrial production data keeping the market makers guessing and favoring only those on the right side of volatility.
2) 5555 remains the reversal level now for tomorrow and below 5555, Nifty can fall to 5470-5450-5400 levels.
3) The 5-EMA level at close today is 5598. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - July 14, 2011

Nifty remains above 5555 levels on spot prices today. VWAP @ close is 5584. Nifty closes at 5585.

1) The bias is still sideways till Nifty does not close above 5610 on spot prices for target of 5665-5730.
2) Below 5555, the levels of 5490-5420 are support levels.
3) The results of heavy weight index stocks in this QE-1 earnings season is very crucial for Nifty to remain above the long term weekly support of 5555 level.  The 5-EMA level at close today is 5597 and this level will be important level to watch tomorrow.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - July 13, 2011

Nifty opens gap down and closes in the red well below the important support level of 5555. VWAP @ close is 5548. Nifty closes at 5526.

1) Nifty has now fallen below all important short term support levels and needs to stabilize around 5555 on spot prices. Reversal level will be 5555 level tomorrow.
2) Below 5515, Nifty can fall to 5480-5415 level.
3) Nifty broke the 5-EMA level yesterday and today fallen below the 34-EMA level of 5544.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 12, 2011

Nifty falls to 5600 levels and trading at important support level of 5610 ahead of the expected big results. VWAP @ close is 5632. Nifty closes at 5616.

1) Nifty needs to trade above 5665 for the bullish view to hold for targets of 5700-5745-5800. As mentioned in weekly update the results of the big heavyweights in index holds the key.
2) Below 5600, levels to watch 5550-5480.
3) Nifty has closed below the 5-EMA level today and the bias is negative as long as it trades below the 5-EMA level of 5642.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 11, 2011

Nifty opens gap up but fails to cross the 200-SMA level of 5744 and trades range bound most of the day between 5690-5725 to fall further in last hour to close at near the lows of the day @ 5661. VWAP @ close is 5711.

1) Reversal level for Monday is 5690+ level for target of 5730-5770.
2) Below 5665, levels to watch are 5600-5575.
3) The 5-EMA/SMA level is 5655/5659 at close today and Nifty spot has closed just above both these levels. Happy weekend! Happy trading:)

Trade Plan - July 8, 2011

Nifty closes above 5700 levels and looks to move up with high expectations from the QE 1 result season. VWAP @ close is 5703. Nifty closes at 5729.

1) Bullish range for tomorrow will be above 5745 only for target of 5780-5820.
2) Reversal level to think of shorting remains @ 5665. This level was the hurdle so far over the week and Nifty has overcome that level today. Below 5665, the next major support level will be 5600-5555.
3) Nifty is trading above all long-term and short-term EMAs and SMAs except the 200-SMA level which is now at 5744. A weekly close above 5745 sets Nifty up for 5855+ levels. The market is moving towards this important level of 200-SMA and it signifies a bullish undertone now and market expectations are now obviously high with the QE-1 earning estimates. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - July 4, 2011

Nifty opens gap up above 5700 and falls from there gradually to close marginally in the red at 5627. VWAP @ close is 5648.

1) Some consolidation expected around 5600-5665 level now, before move above 5665 for target of 5720-5765. Reversal level on Monday will be 5665 and above only.
2) Below 5610, Nifty will remain weak and could fall to 5580-5550.
3) In the morning two charts of Nifty and Bank Nifty posted with the 52-week update and key resistance and support levels for the market. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

NB: I am taking a break from trading for a week and will be back with posting daily trade plans only next weekend (July 8th). Happy trading :)

The 52-week update

It is time to review the 52-week chart with the QE-1 earning seasons beginning.

1) Nifty and Bank Nifty are moving in tandem.
2) The important resistance levels and support levels are marked in the 52-week chart. Happy trading :)