Trade Plan - September 27, 2011

Volatility increases, Nifty keeps falling and closes at 4835 after visiting low of 4758 level. VWAP @ close is 4820.

1) Nifty is getting weaker and is now headed downwards towards 4250 levels sooner than later. Reversal level will now remain 4935 with a close above 5035.
2) Below 4860, level of 4760 already visited and now intra day support could emerge around 4690-4650 levels. Always some intra day bounce can be expected from the support levels as it is also expiry week and Nifty could suprise everyone with an expiry above 5000 levels too. Reversal point is 4935 to catch this surprise dead cat bounce move if it happens.
3) Important levels of Nifty is given over the next 8-10 trading sessions. I will be back after Dusherra vacation on October 7th.  Till then, Happy trading and wish you all a very happy Dusherra :)  Trade safely :)

Trade Plan - September 26, 2011

Nifty opens gap down at 4874 and takes support at 4830 levels to retrace the fall and cover the gap down from previous close level and closes the weekend @ 4867. VWAP @ close is 4877.

1) Nifty is very bearish and trading below all short term EMAs. Reversal level will be 4935 and above only.
2) Below 4835, support level is 4785 and 4690 now. Next week is the expiry week and wild swings either side of 4935 needs to be traded by intra day players.
3) Due to increased volatility the swings up and down will be sudden and sharp. An analysis of the VIX (volatility) is also attached and VIX level is likely to cross 40+ sooner than later. Trade safely. Happy weekend :)

Trade Plan - September 23, 2011

Nifty tanks with very poor global cues with a huge gap down opening at 5055 level and thereafter never recovering throughout the day. VWAP @ close is 4986. Nifty closes at 4924.

1) The sell off in the last hour below 4980 was due to lack of buyers and now tomorrow Nifty can take U turn intra day only if it trades firmly above 4935 and short covering begins as it is the weekend tomorrow.
2) Below 4935, next support level is 4865-4800. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 22, 2011

Nifty trades above support level of 5110 and closes at 5133 after testing high of 5168 just below recent high level of 5170. VWAP @ close is 5141.

1) Nifty will be strong above 5150 only for targets of 5190-5230.
2) Reversal level will be 5110 again for tomorrow. Below which Nifty can fall to 5075-5000 levels. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 21, 2011

Nifty reverses to positive bias above 5070 in the morning session and gains momentum to close near the high of the day at 5140. VWAP @ close is 5110.

1) The momentum should continue above 5150 for target of 5190-5230. Reversal will be below 5110 levels only.
2) Below 5110, support exists at 5070-5020. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 20, 2011

Nifty trades with negative bias after gap down opening and closes at 5032. VWAP @ close is 5039. Nifty closes at 5032.

1) Nifty has closed below the 5-EMA level of 5049 and is short term negative. Reversal will be above 5070 only for target of 5110.
2) Below 5025, levels of 4980-4920 is likely. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 19, 2011

Nifty ends up flat on the weekend and bias is negative with a close below 5110 post RBI rate.  Nifty did touch 5140+ levels earlier to the RBI news. VWAP at close is 5109. Nifty closes @ 5084.

1) Intra day reversal level will be 5110 on Monday if Nifty turns bullsh trading above 5135  for target of 5175-5210.
2) Below 5110 level, the level of support @ 5070 is crucial below which Nifty can touch 5025-4980. Happy weekend :) Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 16, 2011

Nifty climbs up in the last hour after threatening to break below 4950 levels to close @ 5076. VWAP @ close is 5022.

1) After an indecisive morning session, Nifty picked up in the second half of the day to close well above the  resistance level of 5070.
2) Now reversal level for Nifty tomorrow will be trading below 5030 and above 5070 should go to 5110-5150.
3) The chart uploaded today gives the bullish perspective of a possible target of 5270-5330 in case the RBI policy announcement tomorrow is accepted positively by the market. The key to this is Nifty closing above 5110 on the weekend tomorrow.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 15, 2011

Nifty remains range bound for third day in succession in movement and closes above 5K once again with a steady VWAP @ 4968. Nifty closes at 5013.

1) Today's close is above the 5-EMA level of 5001 and a short term bullish bias can be expected towards 5070-5110-5150 now.
2) Now the level of 4980 becomes reversal level for intra day tomorrow.
3) This rise ahead of the RBI policy announcement in a couple of days needs to be traded with caution as RBI could always spring the unexpected tough monetary tightening measures.  The bias has turned positive for the next two sessions with the close above 5-EMA now.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 14, 2011

Nifty opens gap up and trades range bound in the range between 4930-4980-5030 for most part of the day. VWAP @ close is 4971. Nifty closes flat at 4941.

1) Below 4930, target of 4880-4830 is intact.
2) Reversal above 5030 only on closing basis. Bias is negative. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 13, 2011

A gap down opening at 4980 levels and market never attempted to breach the opening level with the poor IIP numbers and Nifty took support around 4910 and traded without significant volumes with a highly bearish bias.  VWAP @ close is 4944. Nifty closes @ 4947.

1) Reversal level will only be close above 5030 now. So market is short on rise mode for intra day.
2) Below 4930, Nifty should now test 4890-4850 levels within a couple of trading sessions.
3) The data of IIP numbers are very weak and now the event of the RBI policy announcement on 16th September assumes significance. Till then market could be range bound between 4850-5050. The bias is negative.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 12, 2011

Nifty fails to sustain above 5150 levels in the morning trades with the flat opening and tanks below the support levels of 5135 and 5110 to test 5045 levels. VWAP @ close is 5096. Nifty closes @ 5059.

1) There has been no significant change from previous weekend close of 5040 with this weekend closing except that it has closed below the 5-EMA/SMA level of 5081.
2)  Now 5110 remains as reversal level for Monday. Below a weekly close of 5110, Nifty could now likely test support levels of 4980 and 4935 with a gap down opening and make an U turn from these levels towards 5110+. Happy weekend. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 9, 2011

Nifty consolidates around 5110 level in the morning trades and takes off to close above the 34-EMA level. VWAP @ close is 5130. Nifty closes at 5153.

1) Intra day longs tomorrow above 5150 only for targets of 5200-5220-5240. Nifty should face some resistance around 5190 levels tomorrow and now a close above 5190 level is required.
2) Below 5110, the levels of 5070-5010 are likely to be seen.
3) Some consolidation above 5150 and the level of 5190 could happen on the weekend tomorrow. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 8, 2011

Nifty opens gap up and continues its trend up to test 5150 levels above 5110. VWAP @ close is 5112. Nifty closes at 5125.

1) Nifty will be bullish tomorrow above 5135 for target of 5175-5200.
2) Below 5110, Nifty will become bearish and could fall fast towards 5080-5066 levels. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 7, 2011

Gap down opening and Nifty appeared weak but gradually gained momentum around the 5-EMA level of 4977 once again and retraced to close near the highs of the day @ 5064. VWAP @ close is 4995.

1) A gap up opening could take Nifty easily towards 5090-5110 levels tomorrow and could continue to 5150 levels.
2) A flat/gap down opening means support of 5045 will get tested now and this level becomes very important  reversal level for intra day traders tomorrow too. Below 5045, support levels that will come into play are 5015-4980. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 6, 2011

Nifty trades gap down with negative bias in line with global cues but manages to trade within the lower end of the Friday range  of 4980-5025  to close above 5K. VWAP @ close is 4987. Nifty closes at 5017.

1) Nifty has had three consecutive close above 5K as of today and with improved global cues looks likely to consolidate around 5000 levels with 5045 as the important level to go long for targets of 5070-5110-5150.
2) Below 4980, Nifty will be weak and fall to 4900-4860 levels. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - September 5, 2011

Nifty opened gap up and after sell off at 5045 level found support above 4980 levels and retraced back to close @  5045 level.

1) The target of 5070-5110-5150 remains intact as long as Nifty trades above 5045 level.
2) Below 5045, Nifty will be weak intra day and no longs below this level. Below 5045, the levels of 4980-4950 could be likely tested.
3) After the weekend, the level of 5070 will be crucial once again on Monday morning. Happy weekend. Happy trading :)