Trade Plan - November 1, 2011

Nifty had a range bound session and trying to consolidate around the 5336 levels which is the 200-EMA level. VWAP @ close is 5353. Nifty closes at 5327.

1) Now Nifty will aim to close above the 200-EMA/SMA level (5336/5407) and a couple of sessions could be range bound. Target above 5345 will be 5410-5450 for intra day tomorrow. Reversal level will be 5320.
2) Below 5320, Nifty will attempt to fill the gap up opening and fall towards 5270-5210.
3) Volatility has eased considerably and intra day moves will be best for scalping 15-20 points only above  5345-5365 levels. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan -October 31st, 2011

Nifty opens gap up at 5340 after a bullish close above 5200 on muhurat trading day and closes the gap down opening of August 5th with a gap up opening around same levels. VWAP @ close is 5380. Nifty closes at 5361.

1) Now the level of 5320 is reversal level towards filling the gap and on upside the level of 5380 and above will be bullish for targets of 5435-5495-5555.
2) Below 5320, levels of 5270-5210 are important support levels. Currently these two level supports or resistance has not been tested because of gap down and gap up opening as shown in the chart.
3) The volatility index has eased considerably now and a range bound trading range for November series could be 5110-5180-5250-5320-5390-5460-5555 with the level of 5320 acting like a mean level. Happy weekend.  Happy trading :) 

Reliance Industries - Update

With Nifty having had the highest close in over 50 trading sessions, an analysis of the index heavy weight RIL shows that with increased volumes RIL should reach 1000-1050. The level of 810 has formed the fulcrum of support and is now the reversal point with immediate resistance at around 900 levels. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 26, 2011 & October 28th & 31st, 2011

Nifty traded range bound following the fall in Bank Nifty after the RBI policy announcement but later in the day was propped up by movement in index heavy weight stocks like RIL/LT/Infy to go past 5200 on spot prices and close at 5192. VWAP at close is 5136.

1) Tomorrow is muhurat trading session in the evening for  under an hour and Nifty will be trading above all short term and medium term averages (34-EMA/50 EMA/55 EMA) and the level of 5215 and above will be of interest for those going long for target of 5260-5330.
2) Below 5195, Nifty should find support at 5135.
3) Market reopens after the holidays on Friday (28th) and then followed by the weekend on Monday October 31st.  Wish you all a very happy and prosperous Diwali!  Good Luck!  Happy weekend. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 25, 2011

Gap up opening and then fails to go past the high end of the range of past two weeks of 5150+. VWAP @ close is 5134. Nifty closes 5098.

1) The break out above 5150 only can now take Nifty higher on positional basis. For tomorrow 5110, level remains the reversal level once again.
2) Below 5070, levels of 5045-4995 will come into play.
3) Nifty close has been neutral ahead of the RBI policy announcement tomorrow and with the October series closing tomorrow due to festival holiday on Thursday could be volatile with wild swings either side of 5110. However, it must be kept in mind the volatility index has eased up a bit from last week.  Happy trading :) 

Trade Plan - October 24, 2011

Directionless market and weak below 5110 and closes above support level of  5045 level.  VWAP is 5093.  Nifty closes at 5050.

1) For Monday, now the level of 5070 will become reversal level for initiating intra day longs for target of 5110 and 5150. However, 5110 is a level that will now face resistance.
2) Below 5045, the support levels of 4995-4935 will be tested.
3) The October series expires on Tuesday 25th October and the narrowing trading range (5045-5130) break out should now happen above 5130 or below 5045 for this series.  Happy trading :) Happy weekend :)

Trade Plan - October 21, 2011

Nifty opens gap  down below 5-EMA level of 5087 and manages to find support around 5045 levels to finally close above the 5-EMA level. VWAP at close is 5069 indicating the important level of 5070 was the turning point later in the day. Nifty closes @ 5092 just above 5-EMA level but below the 5-SMA level.

1) The level of 5110 remains the reversal point for fresh longs once again for target of 5150-5225 for intraday traders.
2) Below 5070 spot price, today levels of 5045 offered support, and below this level 4980-4935 will be support levels.
3) Nifty has been broadly trading in the range of 5010-5150 on spot prices over the past many days and this range should resolve conclusively only with a close above 5150 close or 5000.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 20, 2011

Nifty closes @ 5139 levels after opening gap up above 5-EMA/SMA levels to gain momentum above 5110 in the last one hour above 5110 levels. VWAP @ close is 5120.

1) Intra day longs only above 5150 for targets of 5180-5195 where there will be stiff resistance as it will as pressure of October series expiry and rollover  to November series starts developing too.
2) Below 5110, the levels will be 5070-5030. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 19, 2011

Gap down opening at 5050 levels and Nifty remained range bound without breaching 5K levels with negative bias and a day good for small scalping trades from 5025-5040. The first indication of weakness is Nifty opening below and not trading @ or above 5-EMA levels of 5074 throughout the day. VWAP @ close is 5037.

1) The bias will be positive only above the 5-EMA level tomorrow (fallen to 5062 today), confirmed with a close above 5110 level.
2) Below today's low of 5011, Nifty could likely test 4965-4925 support levels.
3) The Nifty daily chart reviewed for 10 weeks (50 days) duration and the gap down opening of August 5th  needs to be closed next for which Nifty needs to sustain and trade above 5090 and give a closing above 5195 in the coming week ahead of Diwali .  Below 5110, Nifty will remain bearish. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 18, 2011

Gap up opening and a day of consolidation around 5110 levels. VWAP @ close is 5118. Nifty closes @ 5117.

1) The trend will be bullish above 5135 only for targets of 5175-5240. Reversal level remains below 5110 only.
2) Below 5110, level of 5080 tested today and below this level 5045 is next major support. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 17, 2011

Nifty closes the week  @ 5132 after opening in negative territory in the morning but managing to regain strength above 5070-5110 support/resistance level. VWAP at close is 5113.

1) The trend for short term ahead is bullish with the results of RIL expected to be good and Nifty now looks poised to be aiming to go past 5180-5230 levels.
2) Below 5110, Nifty will be weak and support levels of 5070 will once again be crucial.
3) The volatility is getting stabilized now and now intra day moves will be smaller moves of 20-30 points maximum.  Happy weekend :)  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 14, 2011

Nifty opens gap up to find selling pressure at highs and below 5110 level traded mostly in a small band of 5070-5100 range to close flat near the lows of the day @ 5078. VWAP @ close is 5100.

1) Nifty is trading above all short term EMAs and SMAs and bias can be termed as still up above 5055.
2) Nifty needs to trade above 5110 level to move towards a strong close of 5180+ tomorrow on the weekend.
3) Below 5055, levels of 5000 and 4950 will be support levels. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 13, 2011

Nifty moves up buoyed by the good results of Infosys and closes @ 5099 after swinging to a high just below 5110 on spot prices. VWAP @ close is 5056.

1) Now the level below 5075 is intra day reversal zone tomorrow. Above 5110, the target of 5150-5190-5230 opens up.
2) Below 5075, the level of 5030-4990 could be tested should massive profit booking set in. Today's rally is mostly due to the short covering rally and a couple of sessions of consolidation around 5110 likely to happen.
3) The second chart is the Fibonacci retracement analysis taking last swing high and low of 5740 and 4720 level. Here too the level of 5110 assumes significance as it is 38.2% retracement level.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 12, 2011

Gap up opening and then trading with downward bias below 5045 to find support around 4965-4980 levels. VWAP @ close is 5014.  Nifty closes at 4974.

1) The trend will continue to be up above 4980 only for targets of 5045-5110-5175.
2) Below 4980, weakness will be more pronounced and support levels will be 4935-4865.
3) The quarterly earning results of Infosys tomorrow will have an impact on the index tomorrow. Today's flat close is a cautious close ahead of the result of the index heavy weight Infy.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - October 11, 2011

Nifty opens flat to gain momentum above 4935 and close near the highs of the day at 4980. VWAP @ close is 4954.

1) Trading above 4980, now Nifty should go towards 5045-5110 levels. Reversal level for intra day will be 4975 tomorrow.
2) Below 4975, levels of 4935-4890 can be expected.
3) The short term bias is up as long as Nifty trades above 4980 tomorrow. Happy trading :)

Bank Nifty - Update

Bank Nifty has been trading at newer lows once it breached 10,000 mark on weekly closing basis. Bank Nifty needs to trade above 9200 and close above 9750 on weekly basis for bullishness to  return in the next 2-3 weeks. Below 9200, Bank Nifty is weak and could find support around 8250 levels.

Trade Plan - October 10, 2011

A gap up opening on strong global cues and Nifty trades above 4900 for most part of day before closing at 4888. VWAP @ close is 4910.

1) From the short term point of view Nifty has closed above 5-EMA as well as 5-SMA level of 4832/4866 and looks to go up towards 4975-5035.
2) Monday will be bullish as long as the level of 4835 is held even with a gap down opening.
3) Gap up opening above 4935 will take Nifty past 4975-5050 as lot of short covering needs to take place now.
4) Below 4835, expect Nifty to fall once again towards 4775-4700 levels.
5) The daily chart for about 40 trading sessions (8 weeks time frame) above shows 4975 as an important level now for Nifty to close above ahead of the earnings season to make an attempt to overhaul 5230-5270 in anticipation of good results from index heavy weight stocks.   Happy weekend! Happy Trading :)