Trade Plan - December 1, 2011

Nifty trades in the lower end of the trading range with gap down opening in anticipation of GDP numbers and recovers to close at 4832. VWAP @ close is 4805. Nifty closes at 4832. Nifty enters the month of December with a close above 5-EMA/5-SMA level.

1) Fresh intra day longs only above 4860 for targets of 4900-4935-4970.
2) Below 4800, Nifty will be weak and good enough to test lower levels for range extension below the recent lows towards 4600-4530. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 30, 2011

Nifty trades range bound after a good opening and trading mainly in the range of 4800-4860 levels. VWAP @ close is 4830 and Nifty closes the day above the 5-EMA level @ 4805.

1) Bias is positive for intra day only above 4860 for target of 4920-4970.
2) Below 4800, Nifty could fall well below today's low of 4787 to earlier lows of 4720-4640. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 29, 2011

Nifty opens gap up above the 5-EMA/5-SMA levels which was the reversal point for today with positive global cues and sustains above this level to go past 4850 levels and closes @ 4851. VWAP @ close is 4828.

1) The bounce up above the 5-EMA level should now continue upward above 4860 to around 4920-4970 level. Reversal will be below 4800 level on spot prices.
2) Below 4800 level, Nifty might touch 4740-4680.
3) A close above 4920 tomorrow with continuation of this upward momentum will likely take Nifty to 5085 levels in a couple of days after some consolidation around the levels of 4900.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 28, 2011

Nifty trades in a range bound note and closes at 4710. VWAP @ close is  4735.

1) The week ends with the lowest weekly close of the year and bias remains bearish till Nifty does not now cross the fallen 5-EMA level of 4773 to close above 4830 and consolidate to cross 4870-4910 levels.
2) Below 4700, Nifty should test 4640 and below that 4590-4540.
3) Global cues and currency market point to a bearish scenario.  Happy weekend.  Happy trading :) 

Trade Plan - November 25, 2011

Nifty November series expires at 4756, the lowest series close of the year and testing lowest level on spot prices for the year, after taking support at yesterday's low once again and bouncing back on short covering rally. VWAP at close is 4691.

1) Bias is still negative a close above 4750-4800 zone is required over the next few sessions for fresh buying to come in. The volumes are not encouraging enough for bullishness to return coupled with the global cues.
2) Below 4700, the levels of 4640 and later 4590-4530 will likely be tested.
3) The chart uploaded today is a long term daily chart from August 2009 till date. Some sort of symmetry is in the making apparently of the trading range that seems to be developing on this chart and it looks quite interesting and no technicals involved in seeing this chart.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 24, 2011

Worsening currency rate situation and global cues make an ideal set up for Nifty to open gap down and continue its downward journey to close at the lowest level of 2011 today. VWAP at close is 4703.
Nifty closes @ 4706.

1) Nifty should hit newer lows in the coming sessions with worsening global cues and the rising volatility. Some support can be expected at 4530-4480 level.
2) Fresh buying will now come only if this trend gets halted and Nifty gets a close above 4750-4800 zone consecutively for 5-6 trading sessions. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 23, 2011

Nifty apparently trades with positive bias and closes above yesterday's close, but needs to now overcome resistance at 4890 levels for bullishness to return. Obviously buyers will dry up below the year low of 4720 in a falling market and market makers will try to keep it in a trading zone for now. VWAP 4821. Nifty closes at 4812.

1) Reversal level remains 4830 for tomorrow too with resistance at 4890 to be overcome.
2) Below 4770, newer lows of the year will be made. With two days more to go for expiry of November series, volatility will be high and it is buy on dips and sell on rise mode for intra day players.
3) The level of 4890 is the 5-EMA level now too.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 22, 2011

Gap down opening and weak global cues and the currency market depreciating, nothing was positive for Nifty and kept sliding to close near the lows of the day at 4778. VWAP @ close is 4826.

1) Below 4830 on closing basis, Nifty will continue to be weak and now the final support level will be the low of the year 4720.
2) Below 4720, the next support levels will be 4690-4530-4590.
3) Three more days to go for November series expiry and a relief rally is probable only above 4830 on short covering. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 21, 2011

Nifty trades in the support zone of 4830 to below the resistance level of 4935 on spot prices. It clearly shows the market is exhausted due to lack of volumes and consolidating around 4900 levels. VWAP @ close is 4887. Nifty closes at 4906.

1) Nifty is trading below all short term and long term EMAs and is weak. However, with expiry week beginning on Monday, the short sellers need to close/rollover their positions and a rally can likely happen towards 5050 above 4935-4950 range of spot prices only.
2) Below 4935, Nifty will once again visit 4850 or lower towards the lows of the year at 4720. Global cues will be important now as the earning season is out of the way. Market needs some positive news to infuse some energy into it and now clearly dependent on short covering rallies etc. Have a great weekend. Happy trading :)  

Trade Plan - November 18, 2011

Nifty tanks further below the support level of 5010 to test 4935 support zone which is also broken now and closes at 4919. VWAP @ close is 4994.

1) Nifty will try to recover from 4935 support zone tomorrow towards 4970-4990 purely based on short covering rally as the short sellers have remained dominant throughout this week and would initiate a short covering ahead of the expiry week.
2) Below 4935, Nifty has support @ 4880-4835. One can expect a highly volatile session tomorrow. It will take at least two to three sessions to consolidate around some support level for Nifty  and avoiding intra day trading, if not already short positionally, is the best option. Buying 5000 CE for the next series will be the appropriate hedge if positionally short now.   Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 17, 2011

Nifty swings wildly between 5K to 5035 levels and touches high of 5065 on spot prices. VWAP at close is 5036. Nifty closes at 5030 after swinging wildly in the later half of the day.

1) Reversal level of Nifty for intra day tomorrow is 5070 on spot prices for target of 5110-5150.
2) Below 5010, Nifty is weak and can fall to 4965-4935 levels.
3) A Fibonacci analysis on closing basis for the year 2011 is attached. Bullish view will hold only if Nifty is able to close above 5285 on closing basis weekly over the remaining 6 weeks of this year. A range bound level for Nifty could likely be 5000-5285 levels. A bearish range clearly will be below 5000 towards 4700-4500. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 16, 2011

Nifty opens gap down and fails to sustain above 5150 spot prices and cracks below the support levels of 5110-5070 easily to close below 5070. VWAP @ close is 5128. Nifty closes at 5068.

1) The negative bias from Friday persists and now the level of 5185 and above is the reversal level for Nifty. Tomorrow will be an interesting session of Nifty as the momentum of sell off is gathering pace now and below 5050, next support level is 5010 and 4965.
2) Short covering rally is hope for a small intra day reversal from the support level of 5010 towards 5090+. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 15, 2011

Nifty closes below support level of 5150. VWAP @ close is 5200. Nifty closes at 5148.

1) In spite of gap up opening Nifty goes down after failing to sustain above 5210 spot price and closes below support level of 5150 today. Reversal level will remain 5210 on spot price.
2) Below 5150, likely support levels 5110-5090-5070-5020. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 14, 2011

Nifty opens gap down and trades range bound with support at around 5150 levels and remained range bound amidst negative global cues. VWAP @ close is 5189. Nifty closes at 5169. Also the lesser than expected IIP numbers kept traders away from a largely lackluster day of trading with negative sentiment on the weekend.

1) Support levels below 5150 are 5110-5070-5030.
2) Below 5210 on closing basis, Nifty will be bearish in the immediate short term and the level of 5210 on spot price will be reversal level on Monday. Happy weekend! Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 11, 2011

Nifty closes in the red after breaching the lower end of the narrowing trading range and the 5-EMA level of 5275. VWAP @ close is 5283. Nifty closes at 5221.

1) Reversal to bullish position will be only above 5265 when market opens after holiday tomorrow. Global cues are not supportive of bullish moves.
2) Below today's low of 5210, next support level is 5150 and 5110 on spot prices.
3) A gap down open on Friday can take Nifty to much lower support level of 5035 levels.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 9, 2011

Nifty opens on a flat note after the long weekend and trades range bound and the level of 5295 has become a resistance level intra day level. The support remains at 5265 level. VWAP @ close is 5304. Nifty closes at 5289.

1) View for tomorrow is to go long only above 5295 with reversal below 5265 levels. Targets will be 5345-5380.
2) Below 5265, support exists at 5200-5150 levels. Happy trading :) 

Trade Plan - November 8, 2011

Nifty goes into the long weekend on a flat note, closing  well above the 5-EMA level and having formed support at 5265 levels.  VWAP @ close is 5323. Nifty closes at 5284.

1) Views remain same for the coming week with longs now only above 5295 for targets of 5400-5450. Reversal level remains 5265 level. The 5-EMA level is 5267 and 5-SMA level is 5278 and Nifty has closed above both these levels.
2) Below 5265, levels of 5200-5150 likely.
3) Next week has only three trading sessions with two holidays (Nov 7th and Nov 10th) and gap up and gap down openings likely to be the trend on trading days. Happy weekend :) Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 4, 2011

Nifty trades negatively in the morning session once again to find support around 5200 levels and closes above the 5-EMA level @ 5265. VWAP @ close is 5262 and this level of 5260+ appears to be the balance price zone for Nifty.

1) The trading range of 5210-5310 has now shrunk to 5200-5282 on spot prices. More upside can be expected above 5295 spot price levels for targets of the 200-EMA/SMA level of 5335/5405 immediately.
2) Below 5265 (the newly developed balanced price level), Nifty can once again test 5200-5150.
3) Further tomorrow is the last trading day of the week ahead of the longish weekend with Monday being a holiday and the closing levels of tomorrow will decide the trend of Nifty for the week ahead.  Happy trading :) 

Trade Plan - November 3, 2011

Nifty trades the gap zone of 5210-5310 today and this zone should now get narrower over a couple of sessions and a break out above 5310 or breakdown below 5210 can be anticipated. VWAP @ close is around yesterday's levels at 5297 and Nifty closes flat at 5258 around the 5-EMA level.

1) The zone of 5210-5310 will be a trading range for intra day players and break out  above 5310 will be bullish for targets of 5400-5450.
2) Below 5210, look for support around 5190-5160 levels. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - November 2, 2011

Negative global cues affects the momentum of Nifty and starting with gap down opening,  Nifty falls to close the gap up opening levels almost completely today breaching the 5-EMA level of 5254 and closing just above this level at 5258.  VWAP @ close is 5298.

1) Below the 5-EMA level now, Nifty will likely test the immediate support at 5210 below which 5160 is the next major support level.
2) Nifty will be strong only above 5270-5280 levels now for target of 5350-5410-5450.
3) Closing the week above the 200-EMA/SMA level of 5335/5406 are the immediate targets for Nifty. The overall bias remains up as long as Nifty manages to remain above the lower end of the gap up (5225) levels.  Happy trading :)