Nifty -2011 Fibonacci analysis.

The Nifty closes  the year on a bearish note @ 4624 levels near the lows of the year (made on 20th December, 2011).

The Fibonacci level analysis for the year is shown on the chart. Reversal level for Nifty is above 4790 on closing basis weekly for the coming year. Below 4555, Nifty should gradually fall to 3545 levels (261.8% level). This scenario looks probable with depreciating currency, inflation, and governance issues. The new year 2012 begins on a weak note, but mid way through next year Nifty could make a turnaround if overall  bearish scenario is done with and real growth sets in. Happy New  Year to all the readers of my blog and have a great year end weekend and a great trading year in 2012 :)

Merry Christmas and Happy 2012 all :)

MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR (2012) TO ALL READERS AND VISITORS OF MY BLOG. HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY AND A PROSPEROUS TIME AHEAD!!!

Regards and best wishes

Vinod Kumar

Trade Plan - December 16, 2011

VWAP @ close is 4728. Nifty closes at 4746 after breaking below 4730 and taking U turn from 4674 levels.

1) The bias is still negative and intra day players will buy into Nifty only above 4765 for target of 4835+ above the 5-EMA levels.
2) Below 4675, next support levels are 4640-4590.
3) The RBI credit policy expected to be announced tomorrow is the trigger for our market. The slide of INR needs to be arrested and market will take direction accordingly. No investor will invest when currency market is unstable and credit is expensive coupled with inflation.
4) The bullish range for the next two weeks will be 4835-5135.
5) The bearish range will be below 4765, towards 4565.
4) This is my last post for this year 2011 and the bearish and bullish range levels are mentioned. I will resume posting my trade plans after the brief holiday time off I am taking. Merry X-mas. Happy 2012 in advance. Thank you.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - December 15, 2011

VWAP @ close is 4798. Nifty closes at 4763 with a negative bias.

1) The negative bias continues below 4865 and today also Nifty failed to cross 4840 on spot price. The reversal level remains 4865 on spot prices for bias to change to positive.
2) The lows of 4640 could be once again tested below 4730 now.
3) The link of my post of December 2nd is once again given for the Nifty long term view. The stage looks set for a new low below 4640 within this week itself. http://niftyintradaycalls-vk.blogspot.com/2011/12/trade-plan-december-5-2011.html   Happy trading :) 

Trade Plan - December 14, 2011

Nifty trades in the negative zone with gap down opening and range bound to recover with some short covering rally to end the day at 4800. VWAP @ close is 4780.

1) Views remain same as yesterday with reversal only above 4865 and Nifty moving towards 4935+ close.
2) Fresh lows can be expected if today's low of 4728 breaks towards 4690-4630.
3) Bias is negative and some change in the negative bias can only be expected after the RBI policy review this weekend. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - December 13, 2011

Nifty trades below reversal level for the day 4935 waiting for IIP  numbers at support level of 4865 for the morning session. Post the announcement of IIP numbers and depreciating currency, Nifty tanks below 4865 to test 4755 levels. VWAP @ close is 4823. Nifty closes at 4865.

1) Reversal level remains 4865 for tomorrow if Nifty opens up gap up and short covering rally is induced by market makers.
2) Now below 4755 in case of gap down opening, support levels will be 4690-4635 for an intra day U-turn towards 4765.
3) Overall bias is negative and this is the third consecutive day below the 5-EMA level close. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - December 12, 2011

Nifty closes in negative territory closer to crucial support level of 4865. VWAP @ close is 4889. Nifty closes at 4866.

1) The reversal level for Monday is 4935 on spot prices  for target of 5000-5065 and today Nifty has found support around 4840-4865 level and close around this support level.
2) Below 4865, next support level will be 4785-4700.
3) Nifty has closed below the 5-EMA level for the second consecutive day now. Happy weekend.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - December 9, 2011

Nifty opens gap down and below 5000 levels finds some support around 4935 to close around these levels today at 4944. VWAP @ close is 4991, which indicates that below 4991 the bulls have exited for now.

1) Next support levels will be 4865-4800-4765 below 4935 spot prices.
2) Bias will be negative below 5000 now as this is the level that is important from a longer time frame for this month too.
3) Any intra day bounce can be expected above 5000 level only now with short covering tomorrow.  Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - December 8, 2011

Nifty trades in positive territory throughout morning session making new high of 5099 for this move up and closes at 5062 for the day. VWAP is 5104.

1) The bias is still up but trading above 5100 only will bring in fresh buyers and the move up seems to be taking a pause in search of a reasonable bottom now.
2) Level of 5000 remains the reversal level with long positions intraday only above 5065 spot price for targets of 5110-5135.
3)Below 5000 support level, the next support levels remain 4935-4865. Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - December 7, 2011

Nifty trades within a range bound levels all day ahead of the holiday tomorrow and a flat close today @ 5039.  VWAP @ close is 5055 indicating the premium level is high and bias remains up after reversal from 4860 levels a couple of days back.

1) For Wednesday, after the Moharram holiday tomorrow, 5065+ is the level to go long for target of 5110-5135 on spot prices.
2) Nifty has managed support at 5000 today, but below 5000 spot the support will be around 4935/4860 levels for small bounce. Enjoy a holiday tomorrow and happy trading the day after :)

Trade Plan - December 5, 2011

The bulls on the rampage and Nifty closes near the highest point of the day @ 5050 and most of the shorts getting ejected out. VWAP @ close is 5022. A very strong closing to the week and this week is special in the sense that it completes 13 months from the high of 6338 and today's chart is the 13-month Nifty analysis using Fibonacci levels/projections.

1) Reversal level for Monday will be 5000 levels of Nifty  spot and Nifty will remain bullish above 5025 levels as it is trading above  all short term EMAs now. Next targets for longs will be 5085-5110-5135.
2) The current bullish momentum ahead of the Christmas festival season could take Nifty to as high as 5285-5320+ levels and global cues are bullish for this rally.
3) Below 5000, long positions are not safe and Nifty could  likely slide fast to 4935-4870 levels, as fast as it rose to these levels.
4) The chart of the past 13-months shows the important levels of Nifty highlighted and the bearish scenario in case global cues weaken and should the dreaded 3rd wave down of EW unfold over next four to five months.  Have a great weekend :) Happy trading :)

Trade Plan - December 2, 2011

Nifty opens with huge gap following very positive cues across the West and crosses 5K mark and settles to close @ 4937. VWAP @ close is 4980.  The trading band has now shifted to a higher gear of 4840-5000 now.

1) Nifty should consolidate around 4900 levels now and few days of volatile sessions can be expected. Longs only above 4970 of spot prices.
2) Support level is 4860 and Nifty could retrace the gap up zone and take U-turn from this level.
3) Below 4860, Nifty will be weak and levels of 4800-4750 will come into play. Happy trading :)