Trade Plan - February 10, 2011

Nifty falling as expected and no support is held for more than an hour intra day. After recovering from the gap down opening and support at 5255 levels Nifty tanked below 5320 levels once again to test 5225 levels. VWAP @ close is 5295. Nifty closes at 5254.

1) Trailing stop loss intra day for positional short position will now come down to 5325 tomorrow. Intra day reversal levels should be around 5210 levels with a gap down opening tomorrow as short covering rallies intra day have taken place today between 5255-5320 and later from 5230-5280 towards EOD today and the zone of 5220-5260 some support is seen.
2) The next critical support levels will be 5165-5090 levels on downside.
3) More panic on cards if 5160 levels are broken. The chart shows levels Nifty could fall if 5100 levels are broken. If Nifty does not recover above 5560 levels within the next two weeks taking support either above 5200 or 5165 levels, then levels below 5000 will be certainly seen.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 9, 2011

The expected slide continues for Nifty and now below all support levels decisively with increased volumes. Clearly fresh short positions have been built today in the market right from the opening bell.  VWAP @ close is 5355. Nifty closes at 5312.

1) Not much to write about and Nifty expectedly tanking and closing below 5400 level for the third consecutive session and clearly staring down the barrel.
2) Below 5310, next levels of support will be 5210 and 5240 levels.
3) It will take a while before some confidence is restored and market participants come with positive bent of mind to trade. Reversal levels for intra day tomorrow will be 5240 where a short covering rally can be expected. Trailing stop loss for positional shorts for tomorrow is 5440. It is also time to take a break from the market now and wait for some stabilization.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 8, 2011

Range bound Monday session with Nifty holding the level of 5375 level but failing to go above 5465 levels. VWAP @ close is 5407. Nifty closes @ 5406.

1) Bias continues to be negative with intra day reversal level for tomorrow being 5465 with close above 5525 levels.
2) Fall below 5345, bring in 5280 level into play.
3) The market likely to be range bound till the Union budget is announced this month. It will be make or break after the Union Budget. A tough budget certainly means lower circuit of the index as India Inc is fed up of the corruption running across the breadth and length of the country in all spheres of governance and with political points being scored in media rather than in the parliament by a bunch of scamster politicians. The PM who is the father of economic reforms in India is unable to reform the ministers he has to work with as honesty and meritocracy has been put on the backburner and nepotism and corruption have gained precedence.  The image of the government has certainly hit the lower circuit with the economic scams and market has voiced its concern in the most emphatic manner.  The only trigger for the lower circuit required is for a massive FII sell off. Avoid trades on long side if not already positionally short. Trailing stop loss for positional short positions is 5515 as of now on closing basis. Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - February 7, 2011

Nifty closes the week on a negative note once again after touching a new high of the week today when it touched 5556 level but intra day cracking below 5-DEMA level of 5506 level took Nifty to new lows of the week as well as new low in over 6 months of 5369.  VWAP @ close is 5467. Nifty closes near the lows of the day @ 5396.

1) Highly range bound week and the support of 5400 broken today on weekend. Lower levels of support of Nifty will be 5345-5310-5275 levels.
2) Next week might be another week of consolidation around 5300-5350 levels on downside.  The chart captures the action of the past 5 days on the 90-minute chart and all trades either side of 5465 have been profitable. Nifty is bearish with newer lows consecutively over the past five weeks. Happy weekend! Happy trading! 

Trade Plan - February 4, 2011

After 4 sessions of testing lows between 5402-5420, Nifty today took off to cross 5500-5520-5530 towards EOD after spending considerable time in the afternoon session above 5-DEMA level. VWAP @ close is 5506. Nifty closes at 5527. The 5-DEMA level @ EOD today is 5506.

1) Sustaining above 5500 levels tomorrow, sets Nifty up for a target of 5565-5620-5700 over the next two to three trading sessions.. Strict stop loss or reversal level will be 5490. Nifty has closed above 5-DEMA/5-DSMA today.
2) Below 5495, Nifty will once again become bearish for targets of 5400-5300.
3) The week's range has been between 5402-5539 levels, and with today's close above 5525, it is most likely to break out on the higher side above 5565-5600 level tomorrow once hurdle of 5565 is crossed decisively with volumes. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 3, 2011

Nifty still in negative mode after gap up opening but failing to surpass 5490 levels and testing lows towards end of day and closes on a flat note. VWAP @ close is 5472.  Nifty closes at 5432.

1) Below 5480, Nifty is bearish for target of 5380-5350-5310 levels.
2) Strength only above 5480 with volumes should take to 5530-5590-5620.
3) It appears a one way move up or down possible this weekend with a weekly close above 5590 or below 5310 on Friday. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - February 2, 2011

Nifty continues to test newer lows and just on the fringe of breaking 5400 levels with low of 5402 after failing to sustain above 5495 after the first hour of trade.  VWAP @ close is 5456. Nifty closes at 5417.

1) Failure to sustain above 5400 should take Nifty to 5380-5345, which is where it is headed towards to now @ EOD today.
2) In the event of a gap up opening above 5450, then Nifty will become bullish above 5480 only.
3) Levels to watch tomorrow, 5345 on downside and 5480 on upside. Happy trading!