Trade Plan - February 1, 2011

Nifty opens gap down tests low of 5416 and rallies up to 5526 with short covering and good support at 5465 levels intra day after 1 pm. VWAP @ close is 5487. Nifty closes at 5506.

1) Nifty long position tomorrow only above 5530 for targets of 5565-5615 with strict stop loss of 5495 on spot prices.
2) Below 5460 levels, Nifty can fall to 5400-5385-5345.
3) Consolidation around 5465-5480 levels is taking place and a few more sessions this week will confirm this support level. Overall scenario is still bearish below 5650 level.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 31, 2011

As expected, Nifty crashes to 5555-5500-5460 levels in a one way directional trade and Nifty is now trading below all EMAs and SMAs. VWAP @ close is 5551. Nifty recovers from the low to close the week @ 5512 and has now tested the lower end of the 20-week price channel as shown in the chart.

1) The trailing stop loss for positional shorts initiated at break of 5660 levels will be 5560 (around 5585 in futures prices @ current premium) if not already covered. The premium of Nifty futures at these levels does indicate some short covering and also some fresh longs too being initiated around 5480 levels in the February series as Nifty recovers 50 points from the low to close @ 5512.
2) The level of 5460-5480 if held on Monday should provide some bounce back on short covering rallies intra day up to 5550-5575 levels.
3) The break out from 5477 levels in September 2010 is now corrected. In light of this fact, Nifty could bounce back to 5690 levels if the support of 5460 is held and closes on the back of short covering rally above 5690 to come back into the bullish range of 5725+ levels. This scenario will take at least 4-8 trading sessions after the short-term EMAs stabilize around the support levels of 5480-5555. Till then the trading range could be limited to 5420-5550-5575 over the next week and a short-term bottom is in place for the February series.
4) Break of 5400 levels could lead to a more sharp and severe fall to 5250-5000 levels. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 28, 2011

Nifty January series expiry is at the lowest point of the month after the fall from 5802 levels on Tuesday and the downtrend continues. Nifty breaks below the 200-DEMA level of 5650 and closes @ 5604. VWAP at close is 5660.

1) In February series, the range of 5725-5825-5965 will be bullish zone.
2) The bearish range will be 5690-5600-5555-5465.
3) The closing of the next two sessions is crucial and only a close above 5725 can longs be initiated if support at 5650 is confirmed on closing basis over the next two sessions.  Fresh short positions have clearly entered in the market at the break of 5700 levels. The next two sessions are crucial and avoiding long positions below 5725 is safe way to trade the February series.  Next levels of support 5550-5500-5465.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 27, 2011

Highly volatile session once 5757 was breached @ 1:30 pm and Nifty tanked to 5680 level and closes @ 5687. Nifty touched 5802 in the morning session and it was equally good intra day trade for longs and shorts above and below 5757 levels. VWAP @ close is 5740.

1) Tomorrow is a holiday and Nifty January series expires on January 27, 2011. The level to watch on January 27th is 5660 level. The 200-DEMA level has held well so far and it needs to be seen whether Nifty will take U-turn from that level to close the January series near to today's VWAP.
2) Break of 5650 levels will take Nifty to 5600 levels.
3) Nifty closes below the 5-DEMA level and is bearish. The 5-DEMA level at today's close is 5709.  Happy Republic Day! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 25, 2011

A range bound trading day with low volatility and low volumes in the Jan series expiry week. Nifty closes above the 5-DEMA level of 5720. VWAP @ close is 5732. Nifty closes @ 5743.

1) Level to watch tomorrow is Nifty going long above 5757 and sustaining above 5770  for target of 5780-5820-5855. Reversal will be below 5715.
2) Below 5715, Nifty can drop to 5690-5630 levels.
3) Nifty has held the 5-DEMA level of 5720 quite well today and closing above 5-DEMA will give some more upside up to 5820-5865 in the coming two or three sessions if hurdle at 5770-5790 is crossed. Volumes are low and overall trend will be side ways till Nifty does not cross 5865 on closing basis. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 24, 2011

A range bound weekend closing revolving either side of the pivot point. VWAP @ close is 5696. Nifty closes @ 5696.

1) Views for Monday remain same, longs only @ 5725-5735 levels (above 5-DEMA levels of 5709 at today's close) for targets of 5780-5850. Strict stop loss of 5670.
2) Below 5670, Nifty will become bearish and fall below 200-DEMA level of 5650 to test 5600-5555.
3) This week has  largely been consolidation around the 200-DEMA level of 5650 and Nifty closes exactly at the 5-DSMA level of 5696. Next week is January series expiry week and lot of volatility can be expected on either side of 5725 and 5670 levels. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 21, 2011

Nifty trades in negative zone in the morning session, takes off from the 200-DEMA level of 5648 to touch a high of 5729 and closes above 5-SMA level @ 5711. VWAP @ close is 5684.

1) Tomorrow if this momentum continues, it could be a trend changing day and longs can be initiated above 5715 (5-DEMA level at today's close) with strict stop loss of 5670 for target 5750-5775-5800.
2) A gap up opening above 5735 with support at 5700 throughout the day is another scenario for the targets mentioned.
3) Gap down opening below 5680 will be bearish and the support of 5648 might not be held like today and downside target will be 5610-5575. Tomorrow being the weekend closing, a short covering rally above 5735 can make it a bullish day if level of 5700 is held.  Happy trading!