Trade Plan - February 1, 2011

Nifty opens gap down tests low of 5416 and rallies up to 5526 with short covering and good support at 5465 levels intra day after 1 pm. VWAP @ close is 5487. Nifty closes at 5506.

1) Nifty long position tomorrow only above 5530 for targets of 5565-5615 with strict stop loss of 5495 on spot prices.
2) Below 5460 levels, Nifty can fall to 5400-5385-5345.
3) Consolidation around 5465-5480 levels is taking place and a few more sessions this week will confirm this support level. Overall scenario is still bearish below 5650 level.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 31, 2011

As expected, Nifty crashes to 5555-5500-5460 levels in a one way directional trade and Nifty is now trading below all EMAs and SMAs. VWAP @ close is 5551. Nifty recovers from the low to close the week @ 5512 and has now tested the lower end of the 20-week price channel as shown in the chart.

1) The trailing stop loss for positional shorts initiated at break of 5660 levels will be 5560 (around 5585 in futures prices @ current premium) if not already covered. The premium of Nifty futures at these levels does indicate some short covering and also some fresh longs too being initiated around 5480 levels in the February series as Nifty recovers 50 points from the low to close @ 5512.
2) The level of 5460-5480 if held on Monday should provide some bounce back on short covering rallies intra day up to 5550-5575 levels.
3) The break out from 5477 levels in September 2010 is now corrected. In light of this fact, Nifty could bounce back to 5690 levels if the support of 5460 is held and closes on the back of short covering rally above 5690 to come back into the bullish range of 5725+ levels. This scenario will take at least 4-8 trading sessions after the short-term EMAs stabilize around the support levels of 5480-5555. Till then the trading range could be limited to 5420-5550-5575 over the next week and a short-term bottom is in place for the February series.
4) Break of 5400 levels could lead to a more sharp and severe fall to 5250-5000 levels. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 28, 2011

Nifty January series expiry is at the lowest point of the month after the fall from 5802 levels on Tuesday and the downtrend continues. Nifty breaks below the 200-DEMA level of 5650 and closes @ 5604. VWAP at close is 5660.

1) In February series, the range of 5725-5825-5965 will be bullish zone.
2) The bearish range will be 5690-5600-5555-5465.
3) The closing of the next two sessions is crucial and only a close above 5725 can longs be initiated if support at 5650 is confirmed on closing basis over the next two sessions.  Fresh short positions have clearly entered in the market at the break of 5700 levels. The next two sessions are crucial and avoiding long positions below 5725 is safe way to trade the February series.  Next levels of support 5550-5500-5465.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 27, 2011

Highly volatile session once 5757 was breached @ 1:30 pm and Nifty tanked to 5680 level and closes @ 5687. Nifty touched 5802 in the morning session and it was equally good intra day trade for longs and shorts above and below 5757 levels. VWAP @ close is 5740.

1) Tomorrow is a holiday and Nifty January series expires on January 27, 2011. The level to watch on January 27th is 5660 level. The 200-DEMA level has held well so far and it needs to be seen whether Nifty will take U-turn from that level to close the January series near to today's VWAP.
2) Break of 5650 levels will take Nifty to 5600 levels.
3) Nifty closes below the 5-DEMA level and is bearish. The 5-DEMA level at today's close is 5709.  Happy Republic Day! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 25, 2011

A range bound trading day with low volatility and low volumes in the Jan series expiry week. Nifty closes above the 5-DEMA level of 5720. VWAP @ close is 5732. Nifty closes @ 5743.

1) Level to watch tomorrow is Nifty going long above 5757 and sustaining above 5770  for target of 5780-5820-5855. Reversal will be below 5715.
2) Below 5715, Nifty can drop to 5690-5630 levels.
3) Nifty has held the 5-DEMA level of 5720 quite well today and closing above 5-DEMA will give some more upside up to 5820-5865 in the coming two or three sessions if hurdle at 5770-5790 is crossed. Volumes are low and overall trend will be side ways till Nifty does not cross 5865 on closing basis. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 24, 2011

A range bound weekend closing revolving either side of the pivot point. VWAP @ close is 5696. Nifty closes @ 5696.

1) Views for Monday remain same, longs only @ 5725-5735 levels (above 5-DEMA levels of 5709 at today's close) for targets of 5780-5850. Strict stop loss of 5670.
2) Below 5670, Nifty will become bearish and fall below 200-DEMA level of 5650 to test 5600-5555.
3) This week has  largely been consolidation around the 200-DEMA level of 5650 and Nifty closes exactly at the 5-DSMA level of 5696. Next week is January series expiry week and lot of volatility can be expected on either side of 5725 and 5670 levels. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 21, 2011

Nifty trades in negative zone in the morning session, takes off from the 200-DEMA level of 5648 to touch a high of 5729 and closes above 5-SMA level @ 5711. VWAP @ close is 5684.

1) Tomorrow if this momentum continues, it could be a trend changing day and longs can be initiated above 5715 (5-DEMA level at today's close) with strict stop loss of 5670 for target 5750-5775-5800.
2) A gap up opening above 5735 with support at 5700 throughout the day is another scenario for the targets mentioned.
3) Gap down opening below 5680 will be bearish and the support of 5648 might not be held like today and downside target will be 5610-5575. Tomorrow being the weekend closing, a short covering rally above 5735 can make it a bullish day if level of 5700 is held.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 20, 2011

Nifty trades in green in the morning session above 5720 and after registering high of 5747 struggles to remain above the 5-DEMA/5-DSMA level of 5730 and falls to below support level of 5662 and recovers towards close to close @ 5691.  VWAP @ close is 5710.

1) Nifty struggles to remain above 5-DEMA level today and this level was 5730 today. Longs only above 5735 with break down level being 5698 for tomorrow for target of 5750-5775-5800. The 5-DEMA level is 5717 today @ close.
2) Nifty has taken support at the 200-EMA level of 5648 over the past three sessions and break of this level will give the levels of 5610-5575-5555.
3) The volatility is giving good long and short scalping intra day trades if the important levels are followed. The overall bias is negative as long as Nifty trades below 5750 levels short term.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 19, 2011

Gap up opening and trades range bound between 5680-5710 throughout the day and closing near day's high. VWAP @ close is 5706. Nifty closes at 5724.

1) Important level for tomorrow is Nifty trading above 5735 and overcoming resistance above 5750 levels for targets of 5770-5800. Strict stop loss will be 5690.
2) Below 5690, Nifty will once again test 5645-5610 and below 5610, the next level of support will be 5575-5555.
3) Nifty has taken support at the 200-EMA level of 5648 and consolidating around this zone and a mild pull back primarily due to short covering rally.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 18, 2011

Nifty trades range bound today with support at 5624 and below 5700 today. VWAP @ close is 5663. Nifty closes @ 5662.

1) Important levels to watch tomorrow is Nifty crossing above 5710 and a short covering rally can be expected up to 5760-5790.
2) If negativity persists, then below 5643, Nifty can likely fall to 5606-5580-5555 levels and some upside from 5555 levels can be expected.
3) A close below 5555, will make Nifty highly bearish for the medium term for a possible target of 5030. The level of 5555 should provide some support for a bounce back to 5750-5800 levels in the short term.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 17, 2011

Nifty fails to cross 5-DEMA level of 5832 convincingly and tanks below 5700 in afternoon trade to touch a low of 5640 and close @ 5655. VWAP @ close is 5750 indicating the level from where sell off started later in the day after having taken support at 5700 levels earlier in the day.

1) The level of 5770 will be reversal point for Nifty for Monday. The scenario is bearish and no long positions can be initiated as Nifty is well below all EMAs and now should ideally fall to 5555 levels first if it continues to trade below 5750 levels for a couple of more sessions.  The 233-day EMA is 5576.
2) Going short on rise up to 5770 with stop loss of 5790 is the best trade set up at this lowest close in 4 months. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 14, 2011

Nifty does not cross the 5-DEMA/5-DSMA level today and fails to sustain above 5830 level and takes support at the lower end below 5750. VWAP @ close is 5798. Nifty closes at 5752.

1) The market has not received QE-3 Infy earnings estimates well and by tomorrow a direction the market will indicate after trading within yesterday's high and low values today. The level of 5790 will be reversal area for intra day tomorrow.
2) Below 5700 once again indicates bearishness, and Nifty will likely veer towards 5632-5555 levels.
3) No intra day longs until and unless 5-DEMA/5-DSMA (5832/5807 for tomorrow) levels are not decisively crossed. Tomorrow is weekend and a close below 5750 will be bearish and a close above 5860 will keep longs interested. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 13, 2011

Nifty recovers from low of 5711 to cross above opening high of 5815 and closes @ 5863. VWAP @ close is 5795.

1) The level of 5700 has provided support as of now and Nifty has managed to close above 5860 in today's session. The level to watch tomorrow is the 5-DEMA level of 5872 and 5-SMA level of 5866. Trading above these levels with strict stop loss of 5830, Nifty can go past 5890-5935-5965.
2) After 7 sessions of downward movement, Nifty will now attempt retracement towards 5965-6020-6180 levels.
3) The chart shows the bullish scenario as well as bearish scenario. As long as 5750 is held, longs hold the advantage. Some consolidation around 5890-5965 levels can be expected. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 12, 2010

Nifty takes support at 5700 levels in last hour of trade after failing to cross 5830 levels in the morning session and recovers by 100 points and closes at 5754. VWAP @ close is 5790.

1) Resistance above 5820 needs to be overcome for targets of 5890-5935. Views are still bearish, however, till Nifty does not close above 5965.
2) Break of 5700 levels can lead to newer lows of 5630-5555.
3) The one month chart captures the intensity of the fall in the past 7 sessions. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 11, 2010

The downtrend of last week continues and Nifty breaks important supports of 5860-5820 to test 5740 levels today. VWAP @ close is 5834. Nifty closes @ 5763.

1) Bearish views continue for tomorrow too. Below 5740, Nifty could test 5700-5650-5555 levels.
2) A gap up opening above 5800 and sustaining above 5830 can bring about a reversal driven by short covering rally up to 5865-5920-5965 levels. This scenario is unlikely, however.
3) The 52-week chart shows Nifty is trading below the important levels of 5946 and just above 5700 levels in the past two sessions and closing at the lower end.  The level of 5700 remains the last level of hope in the short term for Nifty as a point of recovery/reversal. The results season will gather momentum with the QE-3 result of Infy in a couple of days.  Good results by the IT major could lead to a reversal of the entire index.  At the moment it is short on rise market with reversal above 5845 on closing basis.  A couple of sessions still to go before a clear cut reversal could be concluded.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 10, 2011

Nifty trades below pivot level of 6062 and crashes below the support level of 6007 to 5883 levels. VWAP @ close is 5987. Nifty closes at 5904.

1) The three consecutive days of correction has taken place mainly led by correction in Bank Nifty.
2) View for Monday is bearish and support zone of 5860-5820 could likely be tested.
3) Upside only above 5965 levels likely after consolidation in the 5860 zone in the next two to three trading sessions.
4) Break of 5820 can lead to a fall to earlier support zone of 5770. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 7, 2011

The downtrend of Nifty continued today and Nifty trades below 5-DEMA/SMA levels throughout the day and below pivot point. VWAP @ close is 6079. Nifty closes@ 6048.

1) A gap up opening and sustaining above 6085 levels for upside levels of 6105-6135 if trades above pivot of 6062.
2) The lower levels to watch in case of gap down opening and break of 6007 is 5965-5911.
3) The 5-DEMA/5-DSMA at EOD today is 6086 and 6113. Tomorrow is the week end closing and intra day levels of tomorrow will be crucial for the next week. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 6, 2011

Gap down opening and Nifty traded below the 5-DEMA/5-DSMA levels for most part and fell to 6062 in the afternoon. VWAP @ close is 6120. Nifty closes @ 6080.

1) Nifty will be bearish below 6085 and next support level of 6040-5965 could be tested if Nifty trades below 6085 tomorrow and now should consolidate at lower levels between 6000-6085.
2) Nifty will become positive only with a close above 6175 now with reversal level being above 6135 if 6085 holds over the next two sessions.
3) The closing 5-DEMA/5-SMA levels for tomorrow are  6104/6124. Trading above these levels and crossing 6135 will be reversal points tomorrow to come back into bullish range. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 5, 2011

Today another day of range bound trade and consolidation around 6135 levels without any upside above high of 6180 or much downside below 6135 levels. VWAP @ close is 6175. Nifty closes @ 6146.

1) One more session of trade below 6160 and Nifty could well test the next lower support level of 6085 below 6135.
2) The 5-DEMA level is now 6117 and break of the 5-DEMA level will make Nifty bearish for next two to three sessions.
3) If Nifty gets support at 5-DEMA level of 6117, then 6135-6150 levels once again becomes entry level for intra day longs. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 4, 2011

Nifty opens gap up and remains above 6150 for most part of day and consolidation around this level is taking place and Nifty aiming to go higher above 6200 after some consolidation and/or retracement at the higher support zone of 6085-6135 . VWAP @ close is 6192. Nifty closes @ 6158.

1) The resistance level of 6160 has held well today and level to watch tomorrow for target of 6190-6220. Strict stop loss intra day tomorrow will be 6135.
2) Below 6135 levels, Nifty could likely test 6100-6085-6060 levels.
3) If there is a gap up opening tomorrow above 6190, then 6190-6235-6265 could be the likely range tomorrow. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - January 3, 2011

Nifty closed @ 6135 on December 31st. VWAP @ close is 6162.  The level of 6135 once again becomes important.

1) Nifty consolidating around 6085-6135 levels can keep the bullish view intact. The reduced volatility favors this scenario. Targets will be 6180-6400. Volumes still low and may be after two to three sessions of consolidation around 6135, Nifty will get a clear cut direction. The QE-3 result season begins and results/performance of index stocks will certainly determine the direction of the index this month.
2) Support of 6085 if broken on a bad day could in fact become a buying opportunity if the level of 5980 holds. Nifty is trading above all EMAs and SMAs and there is no opportunity to think of shorting at these levels.
3) For Monday, the level of 6107 will be strict stop loss for longs if the level of 6135 is held and resistance of 6160 is overcome for target of 6190-6200 on spot values. Happy trading!!!