Nifty enters the new year of 2018 at all time highs. This is a similar situation to 10 years ago when the 2007 year-end close was at all time high of 6138 only to crash after making new high of 6357 a week later on January 8, 2008. Will history repeat itself after a gap of 10 years - difficult to predict but easy to exercise caution while trading at these levels. Analysts project 11300 to 12,500 levels for 2018. After the unprecedented run of the market in 2017 from 8250 to 10545, a time for correction is likely to fructify earlier than expected. Wishing all readers of this blog a very prosperous and happy 2018. God Bless and Happy Trading !!!
Nifty continues making life highs throughout this month and at the time of writing this update has closed at all time high of 10894. Above is the P/E ratio of Nifty. The valuations are reaching overstretched zone with P/E ratio climbing well above 27 now, and this can lead to a sudden and steep rise over the next couple of days. Caution needs to be exercised at this juncture and trailing with tight stop losses from trading perspective . Happy trading !
Update from valuation perspective !
Nifty continues making life highs throughout this month and at the time of writing this update has closed at all time high of 10894. Above is the P/E ratio of Nifty. The valuations are reaching overstretched zone with P/E ratio climbing well above 27 now, and this can lead to a sudden and steep rise over the next couple of days. Caution needs to be exercised at this juncture and trailing with tight stop losses from trading perspective . Happy trading !
NIFTY UPDATE - MARCH 2018 SERIES
Nifty as stated in last update was overstretched from P/E ratio valuation perspective and precisely gave up lot of its gain in the backdrop of the NPA scam in the banking sector. Nifty has now been in correction mode throughout the series of February. Now, Nifty enters the corporate financial year end month of March and has largely priced in the impact of negatives versus the positives and looks to consolidate at the lower end of 10200 as a bottom. Going forward, the month of March will be most likely a consolidation and reversal month after a suitable bottom is found. Corrections could be deeper should Nifty break below 10200 and make a quick fall towards 9900 levels if bad news from global market trickles in to encourage bears to go for heavy shorting. The month of March essentially looks likely to be woven around the 10200 levels with +/- 250 points upside/downside.
Happy trading !
Happy trading !
NIFTY UPDATE - APRIL 2018 SERIES
As discussed in the earlier update for March series, Nifty levels weaved around 10200 +/- 250 points and the high of the series was 10478 and low was 9948. Now for the month of April, the RBI policy and the annual corporate results will trigger the market pricing for the coming fiscal 2018-2019 and Nifty is largely like to trade above 10K levels. A look at the long term and short term EMA/SMA levels of Nifty can be used as a guide to arrive at breakout/ breakdown levels. All the short term EMAs and SMAs are above the 10K level which is a breakdown level now and the highest of the EMA/SMA pack is the 55-SMA/EMA @ 10550/10395. A positive market response to good corporate results will definitely take Nifty past 10500 in April. Conversely, a negative response to the corporate result will take Nifty at least 350-500 points below 10K to 9650-9500 . Nifty has closed the March series at 10113 which is at the lower of the price band of 10000-10500. When the market opens after the long weekend on April 2nd, the direction of the April series will take shape. Happy trading!
NIFTY MAY 2018 NIFTY SERIES - RETRACEMENT MODE !
Nifty enters May series after spending the April series in making up the lost gains of the earlier months and so far has retraced a shade above the 50% retracement levels to close @ 10617 in April series. Currently the market is midway between the result season and also the crucial Karnataka assembly elections of May 12th, and these events will dictate the outcome of the May series. A retracement towards 10900+ with support of 10450 levels seems likely for the first two weeks of May 2018 and continue the trend that has been established in April series. Happy trading !
NIFTY JUNE 2018 SERIES - RETRACEMENT TO BREAKOUT MODE ?
Nifty ends May 2018 series by retracing back to crucial breakout levels of 10735. With an extremely robust GDP Q4 numbers of 7.7% released, the valuations of the indices could get re-rated, and the market can likely make an attempt to make a double top. The first indication of this scenario came with the huge short covering in the Bank Nifty to end the May series at close to 27K levels. A few days into the June series will confirm the breakout trend. If breakout fails, then the support of 10415 formed in May will get tested and a rangebound scenario could be envisaged. The immediate trigger is the pricing in GDP figures in the market for making a breakout. The next trigger in June that follows is the RBI monetary policy of June 5th. The reversal level for the series of June will be index closing below 10415 spot price - till then it is in retracement/breakout mode. Happy trading !
NIFTY JUNE 2018 SERIES - RETRACEMENT TO BREAKOUT MODE ?
Nifty ends May 2018 series by retracing back to crucial breakout levels of 10735. With an extremely robust GDP Q4 numbers of 7.7% released, the valuations of the indices could get re-rated, and the market can likely make an attempt to make a double top. The first indication of this scenario came with the huge short covering in the Bank Nifty to end the May series at close to 27K levels. A few days into the June series will confirm the breakout trend. If breakout fails, then the support of 10415 formed in May will get tested and a rangebound scenario could be envisaged. The immediate trigger is the pricing in GDP figures in the market for making a breakout. The next trigger in June that follows is the RBI monetary policy of June 5th. The reversal level for the series of June will be index closing below 10415 spot price - till then it is in retracement/breakout mode. Happy trading !
NIFTY JULY 2018 SERIES - OVERVIEW
Nifty enters July series with June series closing on a flattish level at 10589 spot price. The above EMA/SMA table clearly shows the resistance level for Nifty will be the 34 and 55 EMA/SMA levels of 10710 and 10675. On the downside support levels, the 144 EMA level of 10484 and the 233-EMA/SMA levels of 10365/10285. With half of the year 2018 having elapsed on time scale, it seems Nifty has consolidated at 10500 levels and breakdown below this level only will worry the investors. With USDINR and crude prices fluctuating and breaking out, there will be some volatility on the index and corporate earnings will dictate the fair pricing of the Nifty constituents going forward. Happy trading !!!
NIFTY AUGUST 2018 SERIES - @ ALL TIME HIGH
Nifty enters August series @ all time highs. The footnote on the EMA/SMA table analysis explains the status of Nifty, which has given a breakout and currently trading at all time highs. The immediate support is @ 10900+ levels and no level can be predicted as resistance in a market that has broken out. Happy trading !!!
NIFTY SEPTEMBER 2018 SERIES - CONSOLIDATION TIME ?
Nifty as expected did not face much resistance at any level after the breakout above 11171 in the August series and touched an all time high of 11760 and ending the August series at an all time highest close for the series. With the result season out of the way, some consolidation around the 21-day SMA/EMA level can now be expected to form a support zone. With two-thirds of the year 2018 over, the remainder 4 months of this year could take Nifty to fresh all time highs provided the supports get established well above 11200 levels . The month of September can now be expected to be for consolidation and finding an appropriate support for Nifty. Happy trading !!!
NIFTY OCTOBER SERIES 2018 - BOTTOMING OUT ?
Nifty failed to consolidate around 11475 levels in the Setpember series and slipped to below 11k levels to make a low of 10866 and closed the series @ 10977 spot price. The correction of almost 900 points triggered by USDINR currency depreciation, crude oil price and some concerns in the banking sector and housing finance sector, namely panic fall in prices of YES Bank and DHFL stock prices.
Now for October series the main trigger event is the RBI monetary policy review in the first week followed by the corporate earnings result season of the Q2. The expected support levels for the October series before the trigger events could well be the the 233-EMA/SMA level of 10700+ and retracement towards the resistance level of 11175-11400-11600. Happy Vijayadashami.!!! Happy trading!
NIFTY NOVEMBER SERIES - RETRACEMENT TO 10700+ !
The October series ended after the failure of Nifty to cross 10700 mark and gave up all the gains to make new low at the beginning of the November series at 10004. The bulls in the November series have their task cut out to give support to the market at the 10K+ levels and force a close above 10700 in November series. The bears on the other hand will wait and watch and panic only if Nifty crosses 10550+ levels on closing basis in the early part of November series - say before November 12th. An oversold market and the festival season could well mark the turning point for the market from bearish mode to a range bound retracement mode for the rest of 2018. Happy trading !!!
NIFTY AUGUST 2018 SERIES - @ ALL TIME HIGH
Nifty enters August series @ all time highs. The footnote on the EMA/SMA table analysis explains the status of Nifty, which has given a breakout and currently trading at all time highs. The immediate support is @ 10900+ levels and no level can be predicted as resistance in a market that has broken out. Happy trading !!!
NIFTY SEPTEMBER 2018 SERIES - CONSOLIDATION TIME ?
Nifty as expected did not face much resistance at any level after the breakout above 11171 in the August series and touched an all time high of 11760 and ending the August series at an all time highest close for the series. With the result season out of the way, some consolidation around the 21-day SMA/EMA level can now be expected to form a support zone. With two-thirds of the year 2018 over, the remainder 4 months of this year could take Nifty to fresh all time highs provided the supports get established well above 11200 levels . The month of September can now be expected to be for consolidation and finding an appropriate support for Nifty. Happy trading !!!
NIFTY OCTOBER SERIES 2018 - BOTTOMING OUT ?
Nifty failed to consolidate around 11475 levels in the Setpember series and slipped to below 11k levels to make a low of 10866 and closed the series @ 10977 spot price. The correction of almost 900 points triggered by USDINR currency depreciation, crude oil price and some concerns in the banking sector and housing finance sector, namely panic fall in prices of YES Bank and DHFL stock prices.
Now for October series the main trigger event is the RBI monetary policy review in the first week followed by the corporate earnings result season of the Q2. The expected support levels for the October series before the trigger events could well be the the 233-EMA/SMA level of 10700+ and retracement towards the resistance level of 11175-11400-11600. Happy Vijayadashami.!!! Happy trading!
NIFTY NOVEMBER SERIES - RETRACEMENT TO 10700+ !
The October series ended after the failure of Nifty to cross 10700 mark and gave up all the gains to make new low at the beginning of the November series at 10004. The bulls in the November series have their task cut out to give support to the market at the 10K+ levels and force a close above 10700 in November series. The bears on the other hand will wait and watch and panic only if Nifty crosses 10550+ levels on closing basis in the early part of November series - say before November 12th. An oversold market and the festival season could well mark the turning point for the market from bearish mode to a range bound retracement mode for the rest of 2018. Happy trading !!!
NIFTY DECEMBER SERIES 2018 - RETRACEMENT ON!
Nifty ends November series after retracing the 50% level of the total fall from 11760 to 10004. The bulls succeeded in forcing the close above the 61.8% level of the fall from upside in November series. This level is @ 10675, which now will be the support/ reversal level for December series. The upcoming triggers for market to retrace fully towards 11760 levels are the RBI monetary policy on December 5th and the five states election results on December 11th. On the global front, crude prices have declined and INR has appreciated substantially to below Rs. 70. The FII buying could start as many stocks have corrected significantly now and look attractive for investment. The calendar year 2018 has been quite eventful for the Nifty index falling twice towards 10,000 and then reversing. Nifty perhaps could well end up the year 2018 above 11,000 levels if triggers in market works in its favour in the December series. Happy New Year ! Happy trading !
