Trade Plan - March 16, 2011

Gap down opening on weak global cues and Nifty recovers from day's low of 5373 to close at 5450 after touching high of 5498 (below 5-EMA of 5499). VWAP @ close is 5441. Nifty closes at 5450.

1) Nifty has done well despite the weak global cues to hang on to the 5465-5480 levels. Today RIL supported the index to remain in this crucial range of 5465 and above, which is the level to watch tomorrow.
2) The bias is negative now with close below 5-EMA levels and the next levels down side will be 5365-5280 levels.
3) The 5-EMA at close today has now fallen to 5482 once again.  Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 15, 2011

Nifty trades range bound for most part of morning session and takes off above the 5-EMA level of 5482 to make a high of 5537 on spot prices. VWAP @ close is 5511. Nifty closes at 5531.

1) Nifty has closed above 5-EMA on the opening day of this week and technically looks good for a good up move though global cues were weak. This up move could be due to short covering. Level to watch tomorrow is Nifty remaining above 5525 levels for a move towards 5565-5600.
2) Below 5525 (The 5-day High EMA level), Nifty if breaches 5-DEMA level of 5500 can fall fast to 5400 levels.
3) The 5-DEMA level at close is 5500. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 14, 2011

Nifty trades below 5-EMA level for second consecutive day and below 5465 levels finds support around 5410 level and closes lower today with negative global cues.VWAP @ close is 5458. Nifty closes at 5445.

1) Bias has gone negative with Nifty trading below 5-EMA level for second consecutive day. Below 5400, next support level will be 5365-5320 levels. Global cues are negative.
2) Market sentiment will remain cautious to guarded on Monday and a firm close above 5520 only will confirm a positive outlook. The intra day reversal level will be above 5485 on Monday.
3) The 5-EMA level at close today is 5482. Happy weekend! Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 11, 2011

A range bound trading day and Nifty trades below 5-EMA level throughout the day and clinging onto the 5465-5480 support levels. VWAP @ close is 5492. Nifty closes at 5494. Global cues were negative today.

1) Nifty has closed just below 5-EMA level and will gain strength if it decisively moves past 5520-5530 levels for further upside. A gap up opening above 5520 is the ideal scenario for bullish view to hold.
2) Break of 5465-5455 should trigger a collapse on the week end tomorrow towards 5400-5370 levels.
3) The 5-EMA level at close today is 5500. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 10, 2011

Gap up opening without much upside above 5555 levels and some consolidation around 5520 levels. VWAP @ close is 5528. Nifty closes at 5531.

1) Nifty has closed above 5-DEMA for second consecutive day and tomorrow either side it could move above or below 5500-5520 levels. A gap up opening above 5555 could like take Nifty above 5600.
2) Gap down opening below 5500, could once again make Nifty test lower levels of 5400.
3) The 5-DEMA/5-SMA is 5503/5518.  The volatility has been under control over the past two sessions. Increase in volumes will take it either way. As of now, stability seems to be there for the short term as long as Nifty trades above 5480-5500 zone. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 9, 2011

Nifty trades above 5465 level throughout the day and remains above 5500 amidst reports of some more time being taken by the two ruling party allies to part ways.  VWAP at close is 5521. Nifty closes above the 5-EMA/SMA level today @5521.

1) Level to watch tomorrow will be 5490 and above. Nifty trading above 5490 could likely take index to 5560-5600 levels. A gap up opening above 5550 is likely tomorrow.
2) Below 5490, Nifty can slide back to 5420-5370 levels due to the high volatility seen in the market now due to negative news flow.
3) The 5-DEMA at close today is 5490. Happy trading!

Trade Plan - March 8, 2011

Nifty has dilly dallied between 5600 and 5230 in the past 7 trading sessions and precariously hovering around the important 5480 levels with the political uncertainty not getting over with the likely withdrawal of support by ruling party's most corrupt ally. The positive effect of the post budget revival and  JPC on the telecom scam has fizzled out and the threat of a lower circuit comes to haunt the index once again and it will be highly volatile sessions ahead with the government trying to salvage whatever prestige is left after the supreme court ruling on the CVC, bitter tussle with the ally, etc. etc.

There is turmoil and public outrage all around against corrupt and inefficient governments. Fortunately we have democratic institutions that are still functioning.  It is high time our democratically elected members/parties understand that democracy gives the right to do only good for the people or else it is curtains and good governance has become a major issue. It is not the fundamentals that is wrong, it is the corrupt fundamentals of those ruling that is a major issue and has certainly caught the attention of the law-abiding citizen like never before. The market is hanging precariously around important support levels. It cannot go on like this for too long. If government falls a lower circuit is imminent towards 5000-4700 levels. If government survives then Nifty should sustain above 5555 for a very slow recovery towards 5900-6000 levels. The government will do well to seek a fresh mandate rather than buying out support from newer allies with compromises to hang on to power.  With the uncertain political scenario, avoid trading if not already short below 5555 on closing basis.  Happy and safe trading!